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<span class="navbar-title">2022 Midterms</span>
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<h1 class="title">Senate Forecast</h1>
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<div class="quarto-title-meta-heading">Author</div>
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<p>Cory McCartan </p>
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<div class="sourceCode cell-code hidden" id="cb1" data-startfrom="11" data-source-offset="-0"><pre class="sourceCode js"><code class="sourceCode javascript" style="counter-reset: source-line 10;"><span id="cb1-11"><a href="#cb1-11" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="im">import</span> { fmt_pct<span class="op">,</span> rate<span class="op">,</span> fmt_surname<span class="op">,</span> AP } <span class="im">from</span> <span class="st">"./utils.js"</span></span>
<span id="cb1-12"><a href="#cb1-12" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>d3 <span class="op">=</span> <span class="pp">require</span>(<span class="st">"d3"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb1-13"><a href="#cb1-13" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb1-14"><a href="#cb1-14" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>d_sum <span class="op">=</span> <span class="fu">FileAttachment</span>(<span class="st">"summary.json"</span>)<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">json</span>()</span>
<span id="cb1-15"><a href="#cb1-15" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>geom_states <span class="op">=</span> <span class="fu">FileAttachment</span>(<span class="st">"states.json"</span>)<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">json</span>()</span>
<span id="cb1-16"><a href="#cb1-16" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>d_history <span class="op">=</span> <span class="fu">FileAttachment</span>(<span class="st">"history.csv"</span>)<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">csv</span>({<span class="dt">typed</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="kw">true</span>})</span>
<span id="cb1-17"><a href="#cb1-17" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>d_hist <span class="op">=</span> <span class="fu">FileAttachment</span>(<span class="st">"seats_hist_senate.csv"</span>)<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">csv</span>({<span class="dt">typed</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="kw">true</span>})</span>
<span id="cb1-18"><a href="#cb1-18" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>d_distr_list <span class="op">=</span> {</span>
<span id="cb1-19"><a href="#cb1-19" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> raw <span class="op">=</span> <span class="cf">await</span> <span class="fu">FileAttachment</span>(<span class="st">"senate_races.csv"</span>)<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">csv</span>({<span class="dt">typed</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="kw">true</span>})<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-20"><a href="#cb1-20" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> raw<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">map</span>(d <span class="kw">=></span> {</span>
<span id="cb1-21"><a href="#cb1-21" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">name</span> <span class="op">=</span> AP[d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">state</span>]<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-22"><a href="#cb1-22" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">rcv</span> <span class="op">=</span> [<span class="st">"AK"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"ME"</span>]<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">includes</span>(d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">state</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-23"><a href="#cb1-23" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">if</span> (d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">state</span> <span class="op">==</span> <span class="st">"OK"</span> <span class="op">&&</span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">rep_cand</span> <span class="op">==</span> <span class="st">"M. MULLIN"</span>) {</span>
<span id="cb1-24"><a href="#cb1-24" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">state</span> <span class="op">=</span> <span class="st">"OK-S"</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-25"><a href="#cb1-25" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">name</span> <span class="op">+=</span> <span class="st">" Special"</span></span>
<span id="cb1-26"><a href="#cb1-26" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb1-27"><a href="#cb1-27" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">interval</span> <span class="op">=</span> [d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dem_mean</span><span class="op">,</span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dem_q10</span><span class="op">,</span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dem_q25</span><span class="op">,</span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dem_q75</span><span class="op">,</span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dem_q90</span><span class="op">,</span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">rcv</span>]<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-28"><a href="#cb1-28" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">rating</span> <span class="op">=</span> <span class="fu">rate</span>(d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">pr_dem</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-29"><a href="#cb1-29" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">margin</span> <span class="op">=</span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">abs</span>(d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dem_mean</span> <span class="op">-</span> <span class="fl">0.5</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-30"><a href="#cb1-30" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dem_cand</span> <span class="op">=</span> <span class="fu">fmt_surname</span>(d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dem_cand</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-31"><a href="#cb1-31" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">rep_cand</span> <span class="op">=</span> <span class="fu">fmt_surname</span>(d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">rep_cand</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-32"><a href="#cb1-32" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">if</span> (d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">state</span> <span class="op">==</span> <span class="st">"AK"</span>) {</span>
<span id="cb1-33"><a href="#cb1-33" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dem_cand</span> <span class="op">=</span> <span class="kw">null</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-34"><a href="#cb1-34" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">rep_cand</span> <span class="op">=</span> <span class="kw">null</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-35"><a href="#cb1-35" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb1-36"><a href="#cb1-36" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">cands</span> <span class="op">=</span> [d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dem_cand</span><span class="op">,</span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">rep_cand</span><span class="op">,</span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">inc_seat</span>]<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-37"><a href="#cb1-37" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">search</span> <span class="op">=</span> {<span class="dt">dem</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"incumbent dem. "</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">open</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"open seat "</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">gop</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"incumbent rep. incumbent gop. "</span>}[d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">inc_seat</span>] </span>
<span id="cb1-38"><a href="#cb1-38" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">+</span> [<span class="st">"contested "</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"unopposed uncontested "</span>][d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">unopp</span>]<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-39"><a href="#cb1-39" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> d<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-40"><a href="#cb1-40" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })</span>
<span id="cb1-41"><a href="#cb1-41" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>}</span>
<span id="cb1-42"><a href="#cb1-42" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>d_distr <span class="op">=</span> d3<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">index</span>(d_distr_list<span class="op">,</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">state</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-43"><a href="#cb1-43" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb1-44"><a href="#cb1-44" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>DARK_BLUE <span class="op">=</span> <span class="st">"#0063B1"</span></span>
<span id="cb1-45"><a href="#cb1-45" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>DARK_RED <span class="op">=</span> <span class="st">"#A0442C"</span></span>
<span id="cb1-46"><a href="#cb1-46" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>BLUE <span class="op">=</span> <span class="st">"#3D77BB"</span></span>
<span id="cb1-47"><a href="#cb1-47" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>RED <span class="op">=</span> <span class="st">"#B25D4C"</span></span>
<span id="cb1-48"><a href="#cb1-48" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>w_BODY <span class="op">=</span> <span class="dv">796</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-49"><a href="#cb1-49" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>SMALL <span class="op">=</span> width <span class="op"><</span> <span class="dv">600</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-50"><a href="#cb1-50" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>elec_date <span class="op">=</span> <span class="kw">new</span> <span class="bu">Date</span>(<span class="st">"2022-11-08"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb1-51"><a href="#cb1-51" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb1-52"><a href="#cb1-52" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>color <span class="op">=</span> {</span>
<span id="cb1-53"><a href="#cb1-53" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> midpt <span class="op">=</span> <span class="st">"#fafffa"</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-54"><a href="#cb1-54" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> color_dem <span class="op">=</span> d3<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">scaleLinear</span>()</span>
<span id="cb1-55"><a href="#cb1-55" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">domain</span>([<span class="fl">0.5</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">1.0</span>])</span>
<span id="cb1-56"><a href="#cb1-56" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">range</span>([midpt<span class="op">,</span> DARK_BLUE])<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-57"><a href="#cb1-57" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> color_gop <span class="op">=</span> d3<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">scaleLinear</span>()</span>
<span id="cb1-58"><a href="#cb1-58" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">domain</span>([<span class="fl">0.0</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.5</span>])</span>
<span id="cb1-59"><a href="#cb1-59" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">range</span>([DARK_RED<span class="op">,</span> midpt])<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-60"><a href="#cb1-60" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> x <span class="kw">=></span> x <span class="op"><=</span> <span class="fl">0.5</span> <span class="op">?</span> <span class="fu">color_gop</span>(x) <span class="op">:</span> <span class="fu">color_dem</span>(x)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-61"><a href="#cb1-61" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>}</span></code></pre></div>
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<div class="sourceCode cell-code hidden" id="cb2" data-startfrom="66" data-source-offset="0"><pre class="sourceCode js"><code class="sourceCode javascript" style="counter-reset: source-line 65;"><span id="cb2-66"><a href="#cb2-66" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>{</span>
<span id="cb2-67"><a href="#cb2-67" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="kw">let</span> exag_fac <span class="op">=</span> <span class="dv">1</span> <span class="op">-</span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">sqrt</span>(width)<span class="op">/</span><span class="dv">160</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb2-68"><a href="#cb2-68" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="kw">let</span> last_elec <span class="op">=</span> <span class="dv">50</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb2-69"><a href="#cb2-69" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="kw">let</span> xmin <span class="op">=</span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">max</span>(<span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">min</span>(d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_q10</span><span class="op">*</span>exag_fac<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dv">50</span> <span class="op">-</span> <span class="dv">10</span>)<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dv">0</span>)</span>
<span id="cb2-70"><a href="#cb2-70" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="kw">let</span> xmax <span class="op">=</span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">min</span>(<span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">max</span>(d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_q90</span><span class="op">/</span>exag_fac<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dv">50</span> <span class="op">+</span> <span class="dv">10</span>)<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dv">100</span>)</span>
<span id="cb2-71"><a href="#cb2-71" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="kw">let</span> s_gain <span class="op">=</span> (d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_med</span> <span class="op">>=</span> last_elec <span class="op">?</span> <span class="st">"+"</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"-"</span>) <span class="op">+</span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">abs</span>(last_elec <span class="op">-</span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">round</span>(d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_med</span>))<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb2-72"><a href="#cb2-72" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="kw">let</span> overl <span class="op">=</span> <span class="fl">0.45</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb2-73"><a href="#cb2-73" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb2-74"><a href="#cb2-74" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="kw">let</span> text_shadow <span class="op">=</span> <span class="kw">function</span>(text<span class="op">,</span> opt) {</span>
<span id="cb2-75"><a href="#cb2-75" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> opt2 <span class="op">=</span> {<span class="op">...</span>opt}</span>
<span id="cb2-76"><a href="#cb2-76" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> opt2<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dx</span> <span class="op">=</span> opt2<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dx</span> <span class="op">+</span> <span class="dv">3</span></span>
<span id="cb2-77"><a href="#cb2-77" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> opt2<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dy</span> <span class="op">=</span> opt2<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dy</span> <span class="op">+</span> <span class="dv">3</span></span>
<span id="cb2-78"><a href="#cb2-78" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> opt2<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">fill</span> <span class="op">=</span> <span class="st">"#0007"</span></span>
<span id="cb2-79"><a href="#cb2-79" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> opt2<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">stroke</span> <span class="op">=</span> <span class="st">"none"</span></span>
<span id="cb2-80"><a href="#cb2-80" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> [Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">text</span>([text]<span class="op">,</span> opt2)<span class="op">,</span> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">text</span>([text]<span class="op">,</span> opt)]</span>
<span id="cb2-81"><a href="#cb2-81" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>}</span>
<span id="cb2-82"><a href="#cb2-82" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb2-83"><a href="#cb2-83" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="bu">window</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">plot</span> <span class="op">=</span> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">plot</span>({</span>
<span id="cb2-84"><a href="#cb2-84" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> {</span>
<span id="cb2-85"><a href="#cb2-85" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">domain</span><span class="op">:</span> [xmin<span class="op">,</span> xmax]<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-86"><a href="#cb2-86" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">clamp</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="kw">true</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-87"><a href="#cb2-87" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">inset</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">10</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-88"><a href="#cb2-88" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">tickSize</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">8</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-89"><a href="#cb2-89" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">reverse</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="kw">true</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-90"><a href="#cb2-90" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-91"><a href="#cb2-91" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">y</span><span class="op">:</span> {</span>
<span id="cb2-92"><a href="#cb2-92" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">legend</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="kw">false</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-93"><a href="#cb2-93" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">axis</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="kw">null</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-94"><a href="#cb2-94" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">insetTop</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-95"><a href="#cb2-95" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-96"><a href="#cb2-96" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">color</span><span class="op">:</span> {</span>
<span id="cb2-97"><a href="#cb2-97" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">legend</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="kw">false</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-98"><a href="#cb2-98" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-99"><a href="#cb2-99" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">marks</span><span class="op">:</span> [</span>
<span id="cb2-100"><a href="#cb2-100" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">rectY</span>(d_hist<span class="op">,</span> {</span>
<span id="cb2-101"><a href="#cb2-101" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x1</span><span class="op">:</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dem_seats</span> <span class="op">-</span> overl<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-102"><a href="#cb2-102" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x2</span><span class="op">:</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dem_seats</span> <span class="op">+</span> overl<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-103"><a href="#cb2-103" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">y</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"pr"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-104"><a href="#cb2-104" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fill</span><span class="op">:</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dem_seats</span> <span class="op">>=</span> <span class="dv">50</span> <span class="op">?</span> BLUE <span class="op">:</span> RED<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-105"><a href="#cb2-105" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-106"><a href="#cb2-106" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">ruleY</span>([<span class="dv">0</span>])<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-107"><a href="#cb2-107" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">ruleY</span>([<span class="dv">0</span>]<span class="op">,</span> {</span>
<span id="cb2-108"><a href="#cb2-108" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">dy</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">2</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-109"><a href="#cb2-109" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">strokeWidth</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">5</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-110"><a href="#cb2-110" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x1</span><span class="op">:</span> d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_q10</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-111"><a href="#cb2-111" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x2</span><span class="op">:</span> d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_q90</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-112"><a href="#cb2-112" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">color</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"red"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-113"><a href="#cb2-113" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-114"><a href="#cb2-114" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">ruleX</span>([last_elec<span class="op">,</span> d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_med</span>])<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-115"><a href="#cb2-115" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">text_shadow</span>(s_gain<span class="op">,</span> { </span>
<span id="cb2-116"><a href="#cb2-116" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_med</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dy</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="op">-</span><span class="dv">48</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dx</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">3</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-117"><a href="#cb2-117" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">frameAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bottom"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">textAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"start"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">lineAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bottom"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-118"><a href="#cb2-118" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fill</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"white"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">fontSize</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">40</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">fontWeight</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bold"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">stroke</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"#0003"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-119"><a href="#cb2-119" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-120"><a href="#cb2-120" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">text_shadow</span>(d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_med</span> <span class="op">>=</span> last_elec <span class="op">?</span> <span class="st">"GAIN"</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"LOSS"</span><span class="op">,</span> { </span>
<span id="cb2-121"><a href="#cb2-121" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_med</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dy</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="op">-</span><span class="dv">42</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dx</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">5</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-122"><a href="#cb2-122" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">frameAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bottom"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">textAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"start"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">lineAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"top"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-123"><a href="#cb2-123" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fill</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"white"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">fontSize</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">14</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">fontWeight</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bold"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">stroke</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"#0003"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-124"><a href="#cb2-124" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-125"><a href="#cb2-125" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">text</span>([<span class="st">"← DEM. MAJORITY"</span>]<span class="op">,</span> { </span>
<span id="cb2-126"><a href="#cb2-126" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="fl">49.5</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dy</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="op">-</span><span class="dv">4</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dx</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="op">-</span><span class="dv">6</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-127"><a href="#cb2-127" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">frameAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bottom"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">textAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"end"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-128"><a href="#cb2-128" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fontWeight</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bold"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">fill</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"#111"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-129"><a href="#cb2-129" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-130"><a href="#cb2-130" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">text</span>([<span class="st">"REP. MAJORITY →"</span>]<span class="op">,</span> { </span>
<span id="cb2-131"><a href="#cb2-131" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="fl">49.5</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dy</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="op">-</span><span class="dv">4</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dx</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">6</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-132"><a href="#cb2-132" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">frameAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bottom"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">textAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"start"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-133"><a href="#cb2-133" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fontWeight</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bold"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">fill</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"#111"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-134"><a href="#cb2-134" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-135"><a href="#cb2-135" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">text</span>([last_elec <span class="op">+</span> <span class="st">" LAST ELECTION"</span>]<span class="op">,</span> { </span>
<span id="cb2-136"><a href="#cb2-136" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> last_elec<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dy</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="op">-</span><span class="dv">4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-137"><a href="#cb2-137" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">frameAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"top"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">textAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"middle"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">lineAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bottom"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-138"><a href="#cb2-138" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fontWeight</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bold"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-139"><a href="#cb2-139" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-140"><a href="#cb2-140" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">text</span>([<span class="st">"← DEM. SEATS"</span>]<span class="op">,</span> { </span>
<span id="cb2-141"><a href="#cb2-141" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> xmax<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dy</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="op">-</span><span class="dv">4</span> <span class="op">-</span> (SMALL <span class="op">?</span> <span class="dv">10</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">0</span>)<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dx</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-142"><a href="#cb2-142" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">frameAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bottom"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">textAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"start"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-143"><a href="#cb2-143" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fontWeight</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bold"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-144"><a href="#cb2-144" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-145"><a href="#cb2-145" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> ]<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-146"><a href="#cb2-146" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb2-147"><a href="#cb2-147" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">width</span><span class="op">:</span> width<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-148"><a href="#cb2-148" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">height</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">240</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-149"><a href="#cb2-149" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">marginBottom</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">0</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-150"><a href="#cb2-150" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">marginLeft</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">0</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-151"><a href="#cb2-151" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">marginRight</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">0</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-152"><a href="#cb2-152" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb2-153"><a href="#cb2-153" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">style</span><span class="op">:</span> {</span>
<span id="cb2-154"><a href="#cb2-154" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fontSize</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">9</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-155"><a href="#cb2-155" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">color</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"#444"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-156"><a href="#cb2-156" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">overflow</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"visible"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb2-157"><a href="#cb2-157" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb2-158"><a href="#cb2-158" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>})</span>
<span id="cb2-159"><a href="#cb2-159" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="cf">return</span> <span class="bu">window</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">plot</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb2-160"><a href="#cb2-160" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>}</span></code></pre></div>
<div id="plot-hist" class="cell-output cell-output-display column-screen">
<div id="ojs-cell-2" data-nodetype="expression">
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="banner page-columns page-full">
<div id="summary" class="cell page-columns page-full">
<div class="sourceCode cell-code hidden" id="cb3" data-startfrom="169" data-source-offset="-1"><pre class="sourceCode js"><code class="sourceCode javascript" style="counter-reset: source-line 168;"><span id="cb3-169"><a href="#cb3-169" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>dem_lead <span class="op">=</span> <span class="kw">true</span><span class="op">;</span> <span class="co">// d_sum.sen_prob > 0.5</span></span>
<span id="cb3-170"><a href="#cb3-170" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>{</span>
<span id="cb3-171"><a href="#cb3-171" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> win_party <span class="op">=</span> dem_lead <span class="op">?</span> <span class="st">"Democrats"</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"Republicans"</span></span>
<span id="cb3-172"><a href="#cb3-172" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> win_class <span class="op">=</span> dem_lead <span class="op">?</span> <span class="st">"dem"</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"rep"</span></span>
<span id="cb3-173"><a href="#cb3-173" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> min_seats <span class="op">=</span> dem_lead <span class="op">?</span> d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_q10</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">100</span> <span class="op">-</span> d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_q90</span></span>
<span id="cb3-174"><a href="#cb3-174" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> max_seats <span class="op">=</span> dem_lead <span class="op">?</span> d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_q90</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">100</span> <span class="op">-</span> d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_q10</span></span>
<span id="cb3-175"><a href="#cb3-175" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> phrase <span class="op">=</span> dem_lead <span class="op">?</span> <span class="st">"controlling"</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"flipping"</span></span>
<span id="cb3-176"><a href="#cb3-176" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> prob <span class="op">=</span> dem_lead <span class="op">?</span> d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_prob</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">1</span> <span class="op">-</span> d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_prob</span></span>
<span id="cb3-177"><a href="#cb3-177" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> timestamp <span class="op">=</span> d_history[d_history<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">length</span><span class="op">-</span><span class="dv">1</span>]<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">timestamp</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb3-178"><a href="#cb3-178" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> date_fmt <span class="op">=</span> timestamp<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">toLocaleString</span>(<span class="st">"en-US"</span><span class="op">,</span> { </span>
<span id="cb3-179"><a href="#cb3-179" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">weekday</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"long"</span><span class="op">,</span> </span>
<span id="cb3-180"><a href="#cb3-180" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">month</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"long"</span><span class="op">,</span> </span>
<span id="cb3-181"><a href="#cb3-181" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">day</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"numeric"</span><span class="op">,</span> </span>
<span id="cb3-182"><a href="#cb3-182" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">hour</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"numeric"</span><span class="op">,</span> </span>
<span id="cb3-183"><a href="#cb3-183" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">minute</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"numeric"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb3-184"><a href="#cb3-184" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">timeZoneName</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"short"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb3-185"><a href="#cb3-185" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }) </span>
<span id="cb3-186"><a href="#cb3-186" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb3-187"><a href="#cb3-187" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> <span class="fu">md</span><span class="vs">`</span></span>
<span id="cb3-188"><a href="#cb3-188" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs">The <b class="</span><span class="sc">${</span>win_class<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">"></span><span class="sc">${</span>win_party<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"></b> are expected to win</span></span>
<span id="cb3-189"><a href="#cb3-189" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs">**between </span><span class="sc">${</span>min_seats<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"> and </span><span class="sc">${</span>max_seats<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"> seats**.</span></span>
<span id="cb3-190"><a href="#cb3-190" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb3-191"><a href="#cb3-191" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs">They have a **</span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">fmt_pct</span>(prob)<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"> chance** of </span><span class="sc">${</span>phrase<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"> the Senate.</span></span>
<span id="cb3-192"><a href="#cb3-192" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb3-193"><a href="#cb3-193" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"><p class="updated">Last updated </span><span class="sc">${</span>date_fmt<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">.</p>`</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb3-194"><a href="#cb3-194" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>}</span></code></pre></div>
<div class="cell-output cell-output-display column-screen">
<div id="summary-1">
<div id="ojs-cell-3-1" data-nodetype="declaration">
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="cell-output cell-output-display">
<div id="summary-2">
<div id="ojs-cell-3-2" data-nodetype="expression">
</div>
</div>
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<section id="map" class="level2 page-columns page-full">
<h2 data-anchor-id="map">The Senate map</h2>
<p>Each state is shaded by the probability of a Democratic or Republican win. Cross-hatching indicates an incumbent who has a 50% or higher chance of losing. You can hover over a state to learn more.</p>
<div class="column-screen">
<div class="cell">
<div class="sourceCode cell-code hidden" id="cb4" data-startfrom="213" data-source-offset="0"><pre class="sourceCode js"><code class="sourceCode javascript" style="counter-reset: source-line 212;"><span id="cb4-213"><a href="#cb4-213" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>{</span>
<span id="cb4-214"><a href="#cb4-214" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="kw">let</span> distrs <span class="op">=</span> topojson<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">feature</span>(geom_states<span class="op">,</span> geom_states<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">objects</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">foo</span>)<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">features</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">map</span>(d <span class="kw">=></span> {</span>
<span id="cb4-215"><a href="#cb4-215" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span> <span class="op">=</span> d_distr<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">get</span>(d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">properties</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">state</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-216"><a href="#cb4-216" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">if</span> (<span class="kw">typeof</span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span> <span class="op">==</span> <span class="st">"undefined"</span>) {</span>
<span id="cb4-217"><a href="#cb4-217" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">flip</span> <span class="op">=</span> <span class="kw">false</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-218"><a href="#cb4-218" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span> <span class="op">=</span> <span class="kw">null</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-219"><a href="#cb4-219" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> } <span class="cf">else</span> {</span>
<span id="cb4-220"><a href="#cb4-220" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">flip</span> <span class="op">=</span> ((d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">pr_dem</span> <span class="op">></span> <span class="fl">0.5</span> <span class="op">&&</span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">inc_seat</span> <span class="op">==</span> <span class="st">"gop"</span>) </span>
<span id="cb4-221"><a href="#cb4-221" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">||</span> (d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">pr_dem</span> <span class="op"><</span> <span class="fl">0.5</span> <span class="op">&&</span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">inc_seat</span> <span class="op">==</span> <span class="st">"dem"</span>))</span>
<span id="cb4-222"><a href="#cb4-222" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">&&</span> (<span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">abs</span>(d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">pr_dem</span> <span class="op">-</span> <span class="fl">0.5</span>) <span class="op">></span> <span class="fl">0.01</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-223"><a href="#cb4-223" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb4-224"><a href="#cb4-224" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> d<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-225"><a href="#cb4-225" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>})</span>
<span id="cb4-226"><a href="#cb4-226" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb4-227"><a href="#cb4-227" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="kw">const</span> w <span class="op">=</span> <span class="dv">960</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-228"><a href="#cb4-228" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="kw">const</span> h <span class="op">=</span> w <span class="op">*</span> <span class="fl">0.68</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-229"><a href="#cb4-229" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="kw">const</span> GOLD <span class="op">=</span> <span class="st">"#bc1"</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-230"><a href="#cb4-230" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb4-231"><a href="#cb4-231" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="kw">const</span> svg <span class="op">=</span> d3</span>
<span id="cb4-232"><a href="#cb4-232" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">create</span>(<span class="st">"svg"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-233"><a href="#cb4-233" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">attr</span>(<span class="st">"viewBox"</span><span class="op">,</span> [<span class="dv">0</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dv">0</span><span class="op">,</span> w<span class="op">,</span> h])</span>
<span id="cb4-234"><a href="#cb4-234" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">style</span>(<span class="st">"width"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"100%"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-235"><a href="#cb4-235" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">style</span>(<span class="st">"height"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"auto"</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-236"><a href="#cb4-236" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb4-237"><a href="#cb4-237" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="kw">let</span> proj <span class="op">=</span> d3<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">geoAlbers</span>()</span>
<span id="cb4-238"><a href="#cb4-238" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">scale</span>(<span class="fl">1.30</span><span class="op">*</span>w)</span>
<span id="cb4-239"><a href="#cb4-239" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">translate</span>([<span class="fl">0.85</span><span class="op">*</span>w<span class="op">/</span><span class="dv">2</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.18</span><span class="op">*</span>h<span class="op">/</span><span class="dv">2</span>])<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-240"><a href="#cb4-240" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="kw">let</span> path <span class="op">=</span> d3<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">geoPath</span>(proj)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-241"><a href="#cb4-241" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb4-242"><a href="#cb4-242" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="kw">let</span> geom_distrs <span class="op">=</span> svg</span>
<span id="cb4-243"><a href="#cb4-243" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">append</span>(<span class="st">"g"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-244"><a href="#cb4-244" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">attr</span>(<span class="st">"class"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"distrs"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-245"><a href="#cb4-245" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">selectAll</span>(<span class="st">"path"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-246"><a href="#cb4-246" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">data</span>(distrs)</span>
<span id="cb4-247"><a href="#cb4-247" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">enter</span>()<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">append</span>(<span class="st">"path"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-248"><a href="#cb4-248" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">attr</span>(<span class="st">"fill"</span><span class="op">,</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> {</span>
<span id="cb4-249"><a href="#cb4-249" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">if</span> (d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span> <span class="op">===</span> <span class="kw">null</span>) {</span>
<span id="cb4-250"><a href="#cb4-250" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> <span class="st">"#c0c0c0"</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-251"><a href="#cb4-251" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> } <span class="cf">else</span> {</span>
<span id="cb4-252"><a href="#cb4-252" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> <span class="fu">color</span>(d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">pr_dem</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-253"><a href="#cb4-253" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb4-254"><a href="#cb4-254" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })</span>
<span id="cb4-255"><a href="#cb4-255" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">attr</span>(<span class="st">"stroke"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"#111"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-256"><a href="#cb4-256" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">attr</span>(<span class="st">"stroke-width"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.5</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-257"><a href="#cb4-257" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">attr</span>(<span class="st">"d"</span><span class="op">,</span> path)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-258"><a href="#cb4-258" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb4-259"><a href="#cb4-259" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="kw">let</span> geom_distrs_hover <span class="op">=</span> svg</span>
<span id="cb4-260"><a href="#cb4-260" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">append</span>(<span class="st">"g"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-261"><a href="#cb4-261" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">attr</span>(<span class="st">"class"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"distrs"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-262"><a href="#cb4-262" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">selectAll</span>(<span class="st">"path"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-263"><a href="#cb4-263" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">data</span>(distrs)</span>
<span id="cb4-264"><a href="#cb4-264" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">enter</span>()<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">append</span>(<span class="st">"path"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-265"><a href="#cb4-265" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">attr</span>(<span class="st">"fill"</span><span class="op">,</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">flip</span> <span class="op">?</span> <span class="st">"url(#diagonalHatch)"</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"none"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-266"><a href="#cb4-266" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">attr</span>(<span class="st">"stroke"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"#000"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-267"><a href="#cb4-267" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">attr</span>(<span class="st">"stroke-width"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.0</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-268"><a href="#cb4-268" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">attr</span>(<span class="st">"d"</span><span class="op">,</span> path)<span class="op">;</span> </span>
<span id="cb4-269"><a href="#cb4-269" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb4-270"><a href="#cb4-270" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="kw">let</span> tt <span class="op">=</span> d3<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">select</span>(<span class="st">"#plot-map"</span>)<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">append</span>(<span class="st">"div"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-271"><a href="#cb4-271" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">attr</span>(<span class="st">"class"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"map-tooltip"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-272"><a href="#cb4-272" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">style</span>(<span class="st">"visibility"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"hidden"</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-273"><a href="#cb4-273" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb4-274"><a href="#cb4-274" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="kw">let</span> mmv <span class="op">=</span> <span class="kw">function</span>(e<span class="op">,</span> d) {</span>
<span id="cb4-275"><a href="#cb4-275" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> [mx<span class="op">,</span> my] <span class="op">=</span> d3<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">pointer</span>(e)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-276"><a href="#cb4-276" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> svg_dim <span class="op">=</span> svg<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">node</span>()<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">getBoundingClientRect</span>()<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-277"><a href="#cb4-277" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> w_fac <span class="op">=</span> svg_dim<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">width</span><span class="op">/</span>w<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-278"><a href="#cb4-278" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">if</span> (mx <span class="op"><</span> <span class="dv">50</span><span class="op">/</span>w_fac) mx <span class="op">=</span> <span class="dv">50</span><span class="op">/</span>w_fac<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-279"><a href="#cb4-279" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">if</span> (mx <span class="op">></span> w <span class="op">-</span> <span class="dv">190</span><span class="op">/</span>w_fac) mx <span class="op">=</span> w <span class="op">-</span> <span class="dv">190</span><span class="op">/</span>w_fac<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-280"><a href="#cb4-280" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb4-281"><a href="#cb4-281" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> d3<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">select</span>(<span class="kw">this</span>)<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">attr</span>(<span class="st">"stroke-width"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">2.4</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-282"><a href="#cb4-282" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb4-283"><a href="#cb4-283" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> txt<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-284"><a href="#cb4-284" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">if</span> (d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span> <span class="op">===</span> <span class="kw">null</span>) {</span>
<span id="cb4-285"><a href="#cb4-285" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> txt <span class="op">=</span> <span class="vs">`<h3></span><span class="sc">${</span>AP[d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">properties</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">state</span>]<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"></h3><p></p></span></span>
<span id="cb4-286"><a href="#cb4-286" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> <p>No election this year.</p>`</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-287"><a href="#cb4-287" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> } <span class="cf">else</span> {</span>
<span id="cb4-288"><a href="#cb4-288" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> prob <span class="op">=</span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">pr_dem</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-289"><a href="#cb4-289" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> cand<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-290"><a href="#cb4-290" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> miss<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-291"><a href="#cb4-291" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">if</span> (prob <span class="op">></span> <span class="fl">0.5</span>) {</span>
<span id="cb4-292"><a href="#cb4-292" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> cand <span class="op">=</span> <span class="op">!</span>d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dem_cand</span> <span class="op">?</span> <span class="st">"Democrats"</span> <span class="op">:</span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dem_cand</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-293"><a href="#cb4-293" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> miss <span class="op">=</span> <span class="op">!</span>d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dem_cand</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-294"><a href="#cb4-294" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> } <span class="cf">else</span> {</span>
<span id="cb4-295"><a href="#cb4-295" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> cand <span class="op">=</span> <span class="op">!</span>d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">rep_cand</span> <span class="op">?</span> <span class="st">"Republicans"</span> <span class="op">:</span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">rep_cand</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-296"><a href="#cb4-296" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> miss <span class="op">=</span> <span class="op">!</span>d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">rep_cand</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-297"><a href="#cb4-297" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb4-298"><a href="#cb4-298" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> inc <span class="op">=</span> {</span>
<span id="cb4-299"><a href="#cb4-299" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">dem</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="vs">`<b style='color: </span><span class="sc">${</span>DARK_BLUE<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">'>Dem.</b> incumbent`</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb4-300"><a href="#cb4-300" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">gop</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="vs">`<b style='color: </span><span class="sc">${</span>DARK_RED<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">'>Rep.</b> incumbent`</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb4-301"><a href="#cb4-301" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">open</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"<b>Open</b> seat"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb4-302"><a href="#cb4-302" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }[d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">inc_seat</span>]</span>
<span id="cb4-303"><a href="#cb4-303" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> prob_text<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-304"><a href="#cb4-304" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> prob_color <span class="op">=</span> prob <span class="op">></span> <span class="fl">0.5</span> <span class="op">?</span> DARK_BLUE <span class="op">:</span> DARK_RED<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-305"><a href="#cb4-305" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">if</span> (d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">unopp</span> <span class="op">==</span> <span class="dv">1</span>) {</span>
<span id="cb4-306"><a href="#cb4-306" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> prob_text <span class="op">=</span> <span class="vs">`<b style="color: </span><span class="sc">${</span>prob_color<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">"></span><span class="sc">${</span>cand<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"></b></span></span>
<span id="cb4-307"><a href="#cb4-307" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span>miss <span class="op">?</span> <span class="st">"are"</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"is"</span><span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"> running unopposed and will win the seat.`</span></span>
<span id="cb4-308"><a href="#cb4-308" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> } <span class="cf">else</span> {</span>
<span id="cb4-309"><a href="#cb4-309" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> prob_text <span class="op">=</span> <span class="vs">`<b style="color: </span><span class="sc">${</span>prob_color<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">"></span><span class="sc">${</span>cand<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"></b> </span></span>
<span id="cb4-310"><a href="#cb4-310" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span>miss <span class="op">?</span> <span class="st">"have"</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"has"</span><span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"> a </span></span>
<span id="cb4-311"><a href="#cb4-311" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> <b></span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">fmt_pct</span>(prob <span class="op">></span> <span class="fl">0.5</span> <span class="op">?</span> prob <span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">1</span> <span class="op">-</span> prob)<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"></b> chance of winning.`</span></span>
<span id="cb4-312"><a href="#cb4-312" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb4-313"><a href="#cb4-313" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> disclaimer <span class="op">=</span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">rcv</span> <span class="op">?</span> <span class="vs">`<p style="color: #777; font-size: 0.75em; font-style: italic; margin-top: 0.5em;"></span></span>
<span id="cb4-314"><a href="#cb4-314" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> Estimates do not account for rank-choice voting.</span></span>
<span id="cb4-315"><a href="#cb4-315" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> </p>`</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">""</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-316"><a href="#cb4-316" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb4-317"><a href="#cb4-317" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> txt <span class="op">=</span> <span class="vs">`<h3></span><span class="sc">${</span>d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">match</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="at">name</span><span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"></h3></span></span>
<span id="cb4-318"><a href="#cb4-318" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> <p></span><span class="sc">${</span>inc<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"></p></span></span>
<span id="cb4-319"><a href="#cb4-319" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> <div style="width: 100%; height: 1rem; margin: 4px 0; display: flex;"></span></span>
<span id="cb4-320"><a href="#cb4-320" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> <div style="background: </span><span class="sc">${</span>BLUE<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">; flex-basis: </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="dv">100</span><span class="op">*</span>prob<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">%"></div></span></span>
<span id="cb4-321"><a href="#cb4-321" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> <div style="background: </span><span class="sc">${</span>RED<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">; flex-basis: </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="dv">100</span> <span class="op">-</span> <span class="dv">100</span><span class="op">*</span>prob<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">%"></div></span></span>
<span id="cb4-322"><a href="#cb4-322" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> </div></span></span>
<span id="cb4-323"><a href="#cb4-323" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> <p></span><span class="sc">${</span>prob_text<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"></p></span></span>
<span id="cb4-324"><a href="#cb4-324" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span>disclaimer<span class="sc">}</span></span>
<span id="cb4-325"><a href="#cb4-325" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> `</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-326"><a href="#cb4-326" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb4-327"><a href="#cb4-327" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb4-328"><a href="#cb4-328" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> tt<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">style</span>(<span class="st">"visibility"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"visible"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-329"><a href="#cb4-329" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">html</span>(txt)</span>
<span id="cb4-330"><a href="#cb4-330" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">style</span>(<span class="st">"left"</span><span class="op">,</span> (mx <span class="op">-</span> <span class="dv">50</span>)<span class="op">*</span>svg_dim<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">width</span><span class="op">/</span>w <span class="op">+</span> <span class="st">"px"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-331"><a href="#cb4-331" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">style</span>(<span class="st">"bottom"</span><span class="op">,</span> (h <span class="op">-</span> my <span class="op">+</span> <span class="dv">25</span>)<span class="op">*</span>svg_dim<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">height</span><span class="op">/</span>h <span class="op">+</span> <span class="st">"px"</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-332"><a href="#cb4-332" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>}</span>
<span id="cb4-333"><a href="#cb4-333" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="kw">let</span> mout <span class="op">=</span> <span class="kw">function</span>(d) {</span>
<span id="cb4-334"><a href="#cb4-334" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> geom_distrs_hover<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">attr</span>(<span class="st">"stroke-width"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.0</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-335"><a href="#cb4-335" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> tt<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">style</span>(<span class="st">"visibility"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"hidden"</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-336"><a href="#cb4-336" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>}</span>
<span id="cb4-337"><a href="#cb4-337" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb4-338"><a href="#cb4-338" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>geom_distrs_hover<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">on</span>(<span class="st">"mousemove"</span><span class="op">,</span> mmv)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-339"><a href="#cb4-339" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>geom_distrs_hover<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">on</span>(<span class="st">"touchmove"</span><span class="op">,</span> mmv)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-340"><a href="#cb4-340" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>svg<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">on</span>(<span class="st">"mouseout"</span><span class="op">,</span> mout)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-341"><a href="#cb4-341" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>svg<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">on</span>(<span class="st">"touchend"</span><span class="op">,</span> mout)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-342"><a href="#cb4-342" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb4-343"><a href="#cb4-343" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="cf">return</span> svg<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">node</span>()<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-344"><a href="#cb4-344" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>}</span></code></pre></div>
<div id="plot-map" class="cell-output cell-output-display">
<div id="ojs-cell-4" data-nodetype="expression">
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<section id="gcb" class="level2">
<h2 data-anchor-id="gcb">Public opinion over time</h2>
<p>This chart shows the model’s best estimate of how the generic congressional ballot has evolved over the past few months. The darker and lighter bands show 50% and 80% credible intervals.</p>
<div class="cell">
<div class="sourceCode cell-code hidden" id="cb5" data-startfrom="355" data-source-offset="0"><pre class="sourceCode js"><code class="sourceCode javascript" style="counter-reset: source-line 354;"><span id="cb5-355"><a href="#cb5-355" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>plot_gcb <span class="op">=</span> {</span>
<span id="cb5-356"><a href="#cb5-356" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> d_gcb <span class="op">=</span> <span class="cf">await</span> <span class="fu">FileAttachment</span>(<span class="st">"natl_intent.csv"</span>)<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">csv</span>({<span class="dt">typed</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="kw">true</span>})<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb5-357"><a href="#cb5-357" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">const</span> ci_w <span class="op">=</span> d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">i_q90</span> <span class="op">-</span> d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">i_q10</span></span>
<span id="cb5-358"><a href="#cb5-358" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">const</span> ymin <span class="op">=</span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">max</span>(<span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">min</span>(d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">i_med</span> <span class="op">-</span> <span class="dv">1</span><span class="op">*</span>ci_w<span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.45</span>)<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dv">0</span>)</span>
<span id="cb5-359"><a href="#cb5-359" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">const</span> ymax <span class="op">=</span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">min</span>(<span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">max</span>(d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">i_med</span> <span class="op">+</span> <span class="dv">1</span><span class="op">*</span>ci_w<span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.52</span>)<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dv">1</span>)</span>
<span id="cb5-360"><a href="#cb5-360" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">const</span> today <span class="op">=</span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">min</span>(elec_date<span class="op">,</span> <span class="bu">Date</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">now</span>())<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb5-361"><a href="#cb5-361" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">const</span> days_til <span class="op">=</span> (elec_date <span class="op">-</span> today) <span class="op">/</span> (<span class="dv">24</span> <span class="op">*</span> <span class="dv">3600</span> <span class="op">*</span> <span class="dv">1000</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb5-362"><a href="#cb5-362" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb5-363"><a href="#cb5-363" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">plot</span>({</span>
<span id="cb5-364"><a href="#cb5-364" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">y</span><span class="op">:</span> {</span>
<span id="cb5-365"><a href="#cb5-365" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">label</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="kw">null</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-366"><a href="#cb5-366" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">domain</span><span class="op">:</span> [ymin<span class="op">,</span> ymax]<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-367"><a href="#cb5-367" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">grid</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="kw">true</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-368"><a href="#cb5-368" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">tickFormat</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"%"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-369"><a href="#cb5-369" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">axis</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"right"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-370"><a href="#cb5-370" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">ticks</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">5</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-371"><a href="#cb5-371" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-372"><a href="#cb5-372" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> {<span class="dt">label</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="kw">null</span>}<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-373"><a href="#cb5-373" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb5-374"><a href="#cb5-374" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">marks</span><span class="op">:</span> [</span>
<span id="cb5-375"><a href="#cb5-375" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">areaY</span>(d_gcb<span class="op">,</span> {</span>
<span id="cb5-376"><a href="#cb5-376" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"date"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-377"><a href="#cb5-377" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">y1</span><span class="op">:</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">max</span>(d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">q10</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.5</span>)<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-378"><a href="#cb5-378" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">y2</span><span class="op">:</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">max</span>(d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">q90</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.5</span>)<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-379"><a href="#cb5-379" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fill</span><span class="op">:</span> BLUE<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">opacity</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="fl">0.4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-380"><a href="#cb5-380" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-381"><a href="#cb5-381" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">areaY</span>(d_gcb<span class="op">,</span> {</span>
<span id="cb5-382"><a href="#cb5-382" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"date"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-383"><a href="#cb5-383" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">y1</span><span class="op">:</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">max</span>(d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">q25</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.5</span>)<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-384"><a href="#cb5-384" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">y2</span><span class="op">:</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">max</span>(d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">q75</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.5</span>)<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-385"><a href="#cb5-385" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fill</span><span class="op">:</span> BLUE<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">opacity</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="fl">0.4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-386"><a href="#cb5-386" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-387"><a href="#cb5-387" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">areaY</span>(d_gcb<span class="op">,</span> {</span>
<span id="cb5-388"><a href="#cb5-388" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"date"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-389"><a href="#cb5-389" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">y1</span><span class="op">:</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">min</span>(d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">q10</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.5</span>)<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-390"><a href="#cb5-390" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">y2</span><span class="op">:</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">min</span>(d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">q90</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.5</span>)<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-391"><a href="#cb5-391" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fill</span><span class="op">:</span> RED<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">opacity</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="fl">0.4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-392"><a href="#cb5-392" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-393"><a href="#cb5-393" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">areaY</span>(d_gcb<span class="op">,</span> {</span>
<span id="cb5-394"><a href="#cb5-394" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"date"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-395"><a href="#cb5-395" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">y1</span><span class="op">:</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">min</span>(d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">q25</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.5</span>)<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-396"><a href="#cb5-396" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">y2</span><span class="op">:</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">min</span>(d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">q75</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.5</span>)<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-397"><a href="#cb5-397" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fill</span><span class="op">:</span> RED<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">opacity</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="fl">0.4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-398"><a href="#cb5-398" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-399"><a href="#cb5-399" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">line</span>(d_gcb<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">filter</span>(d <span class="kw">=></span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">date</span> <span class="op"><=</span> today)<span class="op">,</span> </span>
<span id="cb5-400"><a href="#cb5-400" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> {<span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"date"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">y</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"natl_dem"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">strokeWidth</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">3</span>})<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-401"><a href="#cb5-401" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">line</span>(d_gcb<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">filter</span>(d <span class="kw">=></span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">date</span> <span class="op">>=</span> today)<span class="op">,</span> </span>
<span id="cb5-402"><a href="#cb5-402" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> {<span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"date"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">y</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"natl_dem"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">strokeWidth</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">3</span><span class="op">,</span> </span>
<span id="cb5-403"><a href="#cb5-403" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">strokeDasharray</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"4,3"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">strokeLinecap</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"butt"</span> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-404"><a href="#cb5-404" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb5-405"><a href="#cb5-405" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">ruleY</span>([<span class="fl">0.5</span>]<span class="op">,</span> {<span class="dt">stroke</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"#0007"</span>})<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-406"><a href="#cb5-406" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">rect</span>([<span class="dv">0</span>]<span class="op">,</span> {</span>
<span id="cb5-407"><a href="#cb5-407" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x1</span><span class="op">:</span> today<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">x2</span><span class="op">:</span> elec_date<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">y1</span><span class="op">:</span> ymin<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">y2</span><span class="op">:</span> ymax<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-408"><a href="#cb5-408" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fill</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"#fff7"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-409"><a href="#cb5-409" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-410"><a href="#cb5-410" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">ruleX</span>([elec_date<span class="op">,</span> today])<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-411"><a href="#cb5-411" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb5-412"><a href="#cb5-412" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">text</span>([SMALL <span class="op">?</span> <span class="st">"Estimated Dem. vote"</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"Estimated Democratic two-party vote"</span>]<span class="op">,</span> { </span>
<span id="cb5-413"><a href="#cb5-413" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> d3<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">min</span>(d_gcb<span class="op">,</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">date</span>)<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dy</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="op">-</span><span class="dv">4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-414"><a href="#cb5-414" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">frameAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"top"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">textAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"start"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">lineAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bottom"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-415"><a href="#cb5-415" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fontWeight</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bold"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">fontSize</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">15</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-416"><a href="#cb5-416" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-417"><a href="#cb5-417" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">text</span>([days_til <span class="op">></span> <span class="dv">20</span> <span class="op">+</span> SMALL<span class="op">*</span><span class="dv">30</span> <span class="op">?</span> <span class="st">"TODAY"</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">""</span>]<span class="op">,</span> { </span>
<span id="cb5-418"><a href="#cb5-418" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> today<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dy</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="op">-</span><span class="dv">4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-419"><a href="#cb5-419" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">frameAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"top"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">textAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"middle"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">lineAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bottom"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-420"><a href="#cb5-420" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fontWeight</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bold"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-421"><a href="#cb5-421" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-422"><a href="#cb5-422" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">text</span>([<span class="st">"ELECTION DAY"</span>]<span class="op">,</span> { </span>
<span id="cb5-423"><a href="#cb5-423" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> elec_date<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dy</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="op">-</span><span class="dv">4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-424"><a href="#cb5-424" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">frameAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"top"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">textAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"middle"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">lineAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bottom"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-425"><a href="#cb5-425" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fontWeight</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bold"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-426"><a href="#cb5-426" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-427"><a href="#cb5-427" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">text</span>([<span class="fu">fmt_pct</span>(d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">i_med</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dv">1</span>)]<span class="op">,</span> { </span>
<span id="cb5-428"><a href="#cb5-428" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> elec_date<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">y</span><span class="op">:</span> d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">i_med</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dy</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="op">-</span><span class="dv">6</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dx</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="op">-</span><span class="dv">4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-429"><a href="#cb5-429" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">frameAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"top"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">textAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"end"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">lineAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bottom"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-430"><a href="#cb5-430" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fontWeight</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bold"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">fontSize</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">15</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">fill</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"#223"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-431"><a href="#cb5-431" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-432"><a href="#cb5-432" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> ]<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-433"><a href="#cb5-433" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb5-434"><a href="#cb5-434" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">width</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">min</span>(w_BODY<span class="op">,</span> width)<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-435"><a href="#cb5-435" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">height</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">300</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-436"><a href="#cb5-436" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">marginRight</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">40</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb5-437"><a href="#cb5-437" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb5-438"><a href="#cb5-438" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">style</span><span class="op">:</span> {</span>
<span id="cb5-439"><a href="#cb5-439" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb5-440"><a href="#cb5-440" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })</span>
<span id="cb5-441"><a href="#cb5-441" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>}</span></code></pre></div>
<div id="plot-gcb" class="cell-output cell-output-display">
<div id="ojs-cell-5" data-nodetype="declaration">
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<section id="table" class="level2">
<h2 data-anchor-id="table">The 35 Senate races</h2>
<div class="cell">
<div class="sourceCode cell-code hidden" id="cb6" data-startfrom="449" data-source-offset="-0"><pre class="sourceCode js"><code class="sourceCode javascript" style="counter-reset: source-line 448;"><span id="cb6-449"><a href="#cb6-449" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>viewof search <span class="op">=</span> Inputs<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">search</span>(d_distr_list<span class="op">,</span> {</span>
<span id="cb6-450"><a href="#cb6-450" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">label</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"Races:"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb6-451"><a href="#cb6-451" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">columns</span><span class="op">:</span> [<span class="st">"name"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"state"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"inc_seat"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"search"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"rating"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"dem_cand"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"rep_cand"</span>]<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb6-452"><a href="#cb6-452" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">autocomplete</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="kw">false</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb6-453"><a href="#cb6-453" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">width</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">min</span>(width <span class="op">-</span> <span class="dv">8</span><span class="op">,</span> w_BODY)<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb6-454"><a href="#cb6-454" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>})</span>
<span id="cb6-455"><a href="#cb6-455" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb6-456"><a href="#cb6-456" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="fu">md</span><span class="vs">`Democrats are expected to win **</span><span class="sc">${</span>d3<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">sum</span>(tab_distr<span class="op">,</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">pr_dem</span>)<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">toFixed</span>(<span class="dv">1</span>)<span class="sc">}</span></span>
<span id="cb6-457"><a href="#cb6-457" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs">of the </span><span class="sc">${</span>tab_distr<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">length</span><span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">** races selected below, on average.`</span></span></code></pre></div>
<div class="cell-output cell-output-display">
<div>
<div id="ojs-cell-6-1" data-nodetype="declaration">
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="cell-output cell-output-display">
<div>
<div id="ojs-cell-6-2" data-nodetype="expression">
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="text-muted">
You can search by state, candidate, incumbency, rating, or contestedness. Try searching for “Schumer”, “WA,” “open,” “safe,” “contested,” “lean rep.,” or “tossup” seats.
</p>
<div id="distr-tab" class="cell">
<div class="sourceCode cell-code hidden" id="cb7" data-startfrom="467" data-source-offset="-0"><pre class="sourceCode js"><code class="sourceCode javascript" style="counter-reset: source-line 466;"><span id="cb7-467"><a href="#cb7-467" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>viewof tab_distr <span class="op">=</span> {</span>
<span id="cb7-468"><a href="#cb7-468" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> fmt_name <span class="op">=</span> <span class="kw">function</span>(x) {</span>
<span id="cb7-469"><a href="#cb7-469" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> <span class="fu">html</span><span class="vs">`<span style="font-weight: 500; font-size: </span><span class="sc">${</span>small <span class="op">?</span> <span class="fl">0.85</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="fl">1.0</span><span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">em;"></span><span class="sc">${</span>x<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"></span>`</span></span>
<span id="cb7-470"><a href="#cb7-470" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb7-471"><a href="#cb7-471" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> fmt_inc <span class="op">=</span> <span class="kw">function</span>(x) {</span>
<span id="cb7-472"><a href="#cb7-472" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> <span class="fu">html</span><span class="vs">`<span class="inc" style="color: </span><span class="sc">${</span>{<span class="dt">dem</span><span class="op">:</span> DARK_BLUE<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">gop</span><span class="op">:</span> DARK_RED<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">open</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"black"</span>}[x]<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">"></span></span>
<span id="cb7-473"><a href="#cb7-473" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span>{<span class="dt">dem</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"Dem."</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">gop</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"Rep."</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">open</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"Open"</span>}[x]<span class="sc">}</span></span>
<span id="cb7-474"><a href="#cb7-474" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> </span>`</span></span>
<span id="cb7-475"><a href="#cb7-475" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb7-476"><a href="#cb7-476" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> fmt_part <span class="op">=</span> <span class="kw">function</span>(x) {</span>
<span id="cb7-477"><a href="#cb7-477" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">if</span> (x <span class="op">===</span> <span class="kw">null</span>) {</span>
<span id="cb7-478"><a href="#cb7-478" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> <span class="fu">html</span><span class="vs">`<span style="color: #777">&ndash;</span>`</span></span>
<span id="cb7-479"><a href="#cb7-479" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> } <span class="cf">else</span> {</span>
<span id="cb7-480"><a href="#cb7-480" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> color <span class="op">=</span> x <span class="op">></span> <span class="fl">0.5</span> <span class="op">?</span> DARK_BLUE <span class="op">:</span> DARK_RED<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-481"><a href="#cb7-481" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> <span class="fu">html</span><span class="vs">`<span style="color: </span><span class="sc">${</span>color<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">"></span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">fmt_pct</span>(x<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dv">1</span>)<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"></span>`</span></span>
<span id="cb7-482"><a href="#cb7-482" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb7-483"><a href="#cb7-483" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb7-484"><a href="#cb7-484" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> fmt_prob <span class="op">=</span> <span class="kw">function</span>(x) {</span>
<span id="cb7-485"><a href="#cb7-485" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> tcolor <span class="op">=</span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">abs</span>(x <span class="op">-</span> <span class="fl">0.5</span>) <span class="op">></span> <span class="fl">0.3</span> <span class="op">?</span> <span class="st">"#fffc"</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"black"</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-486"><a href="#cb7-486" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> <span class="fu">html</span><span class="vs">`<div class="chip" style="background: </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">color</span>(x)<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">; color: </span><span class="sc">${</span>tcolor<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">"></span></span>
<span id="cb7-487"><a href="#cb7-487" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">fmt_pct</span>(x)<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"></div>`</span></span>
<span id="cb7-488"><a href="#cb7-488" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb7-489"><a href="#cb7-489" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb7-490"><a href="#cb7-490" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> xmin <span class="op">=</span> d3<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">min</span>(d_distr_list<span class="op">,</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dem_q10</span>)</span>
<span id="cb7-491"><a href="#cb7-491" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> xmax <span class="op">=</span> d3<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">max</span>(d_distr_list<span class="op">,</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">dem_q90</span>)</span>
<span id="cb7-492"><a href="#cb7-492" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> avg <span class="op">=</span> <span class="dv">50</span><span class="op">*</span>(xmin <span class="op">+</span> xmax)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-493"><a href="#cb7-493" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> x <span class="op">=</span> d3<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">scaleLinear</span>()<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">domain</span>([xmax<span class="op">,</span> xmin])<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">range</span>([<span class="dv">0</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dv">100</span>])<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-494"><a href="#cb7-494" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> x_dem <span class="op">=</span> d3<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">scaleLinear</span>()<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">domain</span>([xmax<span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.5</span>])<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">range</span>([<span class="dv">0</span><span class="op">,</span> avg])<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">clamp</span>(<span class="kw">true</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-495"><a href="#cb7-495" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> x_rep <span class="op">=</span> d3<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">scaleLinear</span>()<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">domain</span>([<span class="fl">0.5</span><span class="op">,</span> xmin])<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">range</span>([avg<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dv">100</span>])<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">clamp</span>(<span class="kw">true</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-496"><a href="#cb7-496" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> ici_d <span class="op">=</span> BLUE <span class="op">+</span> <span class="st">"bb"</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-497"><a href="#cb7-497" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> oci_d <span class="op">=</span> BLUE <span class="op">+</span> <span class="st">"77"</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-498"><a href="#cb7-498" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> ici_r <span class="op">=</span> RED <span class="op">+</span> <span class="st">"cc"</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-499"><a href="#cb7-499" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> oci_r <span class="op">=</span> RED <span class="op">+</span> <span class="st">"88"</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-500"><a href="#cb7-500" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> fmt_vs <span class="op">=</span> <span class="kw">function</span>(int) {</span>
<span id="cb7-501"><a href="#cb7-501" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">if</span> (int[<span class="dv">0</span>] <span class="op">===</span> <span class="kw">null</span>) {</span>
<span id="cb7-502"><a href="#cb7-502" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> <span class="fu">html</span><span class="vs">`<div style="text-align: center; color: #777; font-size: 0.85em;">(Unopposed)</div>`</span></span>
<span id="cb7-503"><a href="#cb7-503" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> } <span class="cf">else</span> {</span>
<span id="cb7-504"><a href="#cb7-504" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> gr <span class="op">=</span> <span class="vs">`linear-gradient(90deg, transparent 0%,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-505"><a href="#cb7-505" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> transparent </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">x_dem</span>(int[<span class="dv">4</span>])<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">%, </span><span class="sc">${</span>oci_d<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">x_dem</span>(int[<span class="dv">4</span>])<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">%, </span></span>
<span id="cb7-506"><a href="#cb7-506" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span>oci_d<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">x_dem</span>(int[<span class="dv">3</span>])<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">%, </span><span class="sc">${</span>ici_d<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">x_dem</span>(int[<span class="dv">3</span>])<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">%,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-507"><a href="#cb7-507" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span>ici_d<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">x_dem</span>(int[<span class="dv">2</span>])<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">%, </span><span class="sc">${</span>oci_d<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">x_dem</span>(int[<span class="dv">2</span>])<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">%,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-508"><a href="#cb7-508" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span>oci_d<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">x_dem</span>(int[<span class="dv">1</span>])<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">%, transparent </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">x_dem</span>(int[<span class="dv">1</span>])<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">%,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-509"><a href="#cb7-509" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> transparent </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">x_rep</span>(int[<span class="dv">4</span>])<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">%, </span><span class="sc">${</span>oci_r<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">x_rep</span>(int[<span class="dv">4</span>])<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">%, </span></span>
<span id="cb7-510"><a href="#cb7-510" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span>oci_r<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">x_rep</span>(int[<span class="dv">3</span>])<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">%, </span><span class="sc">${</span>ici_r<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">x_rep</span>(int[<span class="dv">3</span>])<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">%,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-511"><a href="#cb7-511" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span>ici_r<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">x_rep</span>(int[<span class="dv">2</span>])<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">%, </span><span class="sc">${</span>oci_r<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">x_rep</span>(int[<span class="dv">2</span>])<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">%,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-512"><a href="#cb7-512" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span>oci_r<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"> </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">x_rep</span>(int[<span class="dv">1</span>])<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">%, transparent </span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">x_rep</span>(int[<span class="dv">1</span>])<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">%,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-513"><a href="#cb7-513" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> transparent 100%)`</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-514"><a href="#cb7-514" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> disclaimer <span class="op">=</span> int[<span class="dv">5</span>] <span class="op">?</span> <span class="st">"&dagger;"</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">""</span><span class="op">;</span> <span class="co">// RCV</span></span>
<span id="cb7-515"><a href="#cb7-515" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> <span class="fu">html</span><span class="vs">`</span></span>
<span id="cb7-516"><a href="#cb7-516" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> <div class="est" style="background: </span><span class="sc">${</span>gr<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">; </span></span>
<span id="cb7-517"><a href="#cb7-517" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> padding-left: calc(</span><span class="sc">${</span>int[<span class="dv">0</span>] <span class="op">></span> <span class="fl">0.5</span> <span class="op">?</span> <span class="fu">x_dem</span>(int[<span class="dv">0</span>]) <span class="op">:</span> <span class="fu">x_rep</span>(int[<span class="dv">0</span>])<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">% - 6px);"></span></span>
<span id="cb7-518"><a href="#cb7-518" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> &#x25cf;&nbsp;</span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">fmt_pct</span>(int[<span class="dv">0</span>])<span class="sc">}${</span>disclaimer<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"></div></span></span>
<span id="cb7-519"><a href="#cb7-519" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> `</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-520"><a href="#cb7-520" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb7-521"><a href="#cb7-521" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb7-522"><a href="#cb7-522" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> fmt_vs_tiny <span class="op">=</span> <span class="kw">function</span>(int) {</span>
<span id="cb7-523"><a href="#cb7-523" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">if</span> (int[<span class="dv">0</span>] <span class="op">===</span> <span class="kw">null</span>) {</span>
<span id="cb7-524"><a href="#cb7-524" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> <span class="fu">html</span><span class="vs">`<span style="color: #777; font-size: 0.85em;">(Unopp.)</span>`</span></span>
<span id="cb7-525"><a href="#cb7-525" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> } <span class="cf">else</span> {</span>
<span id="cb7-526"><a href="#cb7-526" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> color <span class="op">=</span> int[<span class="dv">0</span>] <span class="op">></span> <span class="fl">0.5</span> <span class="op">?</span> DARK_BLUE <span class="op">:</span> DARK_RED<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-527"><a href="#cb7-527" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> disclaimer <span class="op">=</span> int[<span class="dv">5</span>] <span class="op">?</span> <span class="st">"&dagger;"</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">""</span><span class="op">;</span> <span class="co">// RCV</span></span>
<span id="cb7-528"><a href="#cb7-528" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> <span class="fu">html</span><span class="vs">`<span style="color: </span><span class="sc">${</span>color<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs">;"></span><span class="sc">${</span><span class="fu">fmt_pct</span>(int[<span class="dv">0</span>]<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dv">1</span>)<span class="sc">}${</span>disclaimer<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"></span>`</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-529"><a href="#cb7-529" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb7-530"><a href="#cb7-530" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb7-531"><a href="#cb7-531" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb7-532"><a href="#cb7-532" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> fmt_cands <span class="op">=</span> <span class="kw">function</span>(x) {</span>
<span id="cb7-533"><a href="#cb7-533" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> na_html <span class="op">=</span> <span class="st">"<span style='color: #777'>&ndash;</span>"</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-534"><a href="#cb7-534" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> d_cand <span class="op">=</span> x[<span class="dv">0</span>] <span class="op">===</span> <span class="kw">null</span> <span class="op">?</span> na_html <span class="op">:</span> x[<span class="dv">0</span>]<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-535"><a href="#cb7-535" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> r_cand <span class="op">=</span> x[<span class="dv">1</span>] <span class="op">===</span> <span class="kw">null</span> <span class="op">?</span> na_html <span class="op">:</span> x[<span class="dv">1</span>]<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-536"><a href="#cb7-536" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">if</span> (SMALL) {</span>
<span id="cb7-537"><a href="#cb7-537" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">if</span> (x[<span class="dv">2</span>] <span class="op">==</span> <span class="st">"dem"</span>) { <span class="co">// incumbent</span></span>
<span id="cb7-538"><a href="#cb7-538" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> d_cand <span class="op">+=</span> <span class="st">"*"</span></span>
<span id="cb7-539"><a href="#cb7-539" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> } <span class="cf">else</span> <span class="cf">if</span> (x[<span class="dv">2</span>] <span class="op">==</span> <span class="st">"rep"</span>) {</span>
<span id="cb7-540"><a href="#cb7-540" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> r_cand <span class="op">+=</span> <span class="st">"*"</span></span>
<span id="cb7-541"><a href="#cb7-541" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb7-542"><a href="#cb7-542" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb7-543"><a href="#cb7-543" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> <span class="fu">html</span><span class="vs">`<div class="ddem cand"></span><span class="sc">${</span>d_cand<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"></div></span></span>
<span id="cb7-544"><a href="#cb7-544" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="vs"> <div class="drep cand"></span><span class="sc">${</span>r_cand<span class="sc">}</span><span class="vs"></div>`</span></span>
<span id="cb7-545"><a href="#cb7-545" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb7-546"><a href="#cb7-546" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb7-547"><a href="#cb7-547" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> cols <span class="op">=</span> [<span class="st">"margin"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"name"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"cands"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"inc_seat"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"pr_dem"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"interval"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"part_base"</span><span class="op">,</span> ]<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-548"><a href="#cb7-548" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> cols_small <span class="op">=</span> [<span class="st">"margin"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"name"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"cands"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"pr_dem"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"interval"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"part_base"</span><span class="op">,</span> ]<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-549"><a href="#cb7-549" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">let</span> cols_tiny <span class="op">=</span> [<span class="st">"margin"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"name"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"cands"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"pr_dem"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="st">"interval"</span><span class="op">,</span> ]<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-550"><a href="#cb7-550" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">const</span> tiny <span class="op">=</span> width <span class="op"><</span> <span class="dv">496</span><span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-551"><a href="#cb7-551" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">const</span> small <span class="op">=</span> width <span class="op"><</span> <span class="dv">650</span></span>
<span id="cb7-552"><a href="#cb7-552" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb7-553"><a href="#cb7-553" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> Inputs<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">table</span>(search<span class="op">,</span> {</span>
<span id="cb7-554"><a href="#cb7-554" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">columns</span><span class="op">:</span> small <span class="op">?</span> (tiny <span class="op">?</span> cols_tiny <span class="op">:</span> cols_small) <span class="op">:</span> cols<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-555"><a href="#cb7-555" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb7-556"><a href="#cb7-556" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">header</span><span class="op">:</span> {</span>
<span id="cb7-557"><a href="#cb7-557" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">name</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"Race"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-558"><a href="#cb7-558" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">inc_seat</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"Inc."</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-559"><a href="#cb7-559" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">cands</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"Candidates"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-560"><a href="#cb7-560" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">pr_dem</span><span class="op">:</span> small <span class="op">?</span> <span class="st">"Prob."</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"Dem. prob."</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-561"><a href="#cb7-561" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">interval</span><span class="op">:</span> small <span class="op">?</span> <span class="st">"Est. vote"</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"Vote forecast"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-562"><a href="#cb7-562" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">part_base</span><span class="op">:</span> small <span class="op">?</span> <span class="st">"Lean"</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"Part. Lean"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-563"><a href="#cb7-563" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-564"><a href="#cb7-564" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb7-565"><a href="#cb7-565" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">format</span><span class="op">:</span> {</span>
<span id="cb7-566"><a href="#cb7-566" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">name</span><span class="op">:</span> fmt_name<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-567"><a href="#cb7-567" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">inc_seat</span><span class="op">:</span> fmt_inc<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-568"><a href="#cb7-568" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">pr_dem</span><span class="op">:</span> fmt_prob<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-569"><a href="#cb7-569" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">cands</span><span class="op">:</span> fmt_cands<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-570"><a href="#cb7-570" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">interval</span><span class="op">:</span> tiny <span class="op">?</span> fmt_vs_tiny <span class="op">:</span> fmt_vs<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-571"><a href="#cb7-571" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">part_base</span><span class="op">:</span> fmt_part<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-572"><a href="#cb7-572" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-573"><a href="#cb7-573" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb7-574"><a href="#cb7-574" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">sort</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"margin"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-575"><a href="#cb7-575" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb7-576"><a href="#cb7-576" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">width</span><span class="op">:</span> {</span>
<span id="cb7-577"><a href="#cb7-577" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">interval</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">400</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-578"><a href="#cb7-578" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-579"><a href="#cb7-579" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">maxWidth</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">min</span>(w_BODY<span class="op">,</span> width)<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-580"><a href="#cb7-580" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb7-581"><a href="#cb7-581" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">rows</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">30</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-582"><a href="#cb7-582" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">layout</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"fixed"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb7-583"><a href="#cb7-583" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })</span>
<span id="cb7-584"><a href="#cb7-584" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>}</span>
<span id="cb7-585"><a href="#cb7-585" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb7-586"><a href="#cb7-586" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>SMALL <span class="op">?</span> <span class="fu">html</span><span class="vs">`<small style="color: #777">*Incumbent candidate</small>`</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="fu">html</span><span class="vs">``</span></span></code></pre></div>
<div class="cell-output cell-output-display">
<div id="distr-tab-1">
<div id="ojs-cell-7-1" data-nodetype="declaration">
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="cell-output cell-output-display">
<div id="distr-tab-2">
<div id="ojs-cell-7-2" data-nodetype="expression">
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p><small style="color: #777">†Estimates do not account for rank-choice voting.</small></p>
</section>
<section id="history" class="level2">
<h2 data-anchor-id="history">How the odds have changed</h2>
<p>The model is regularly re-run as new data and polls come in. The charts below track how the model’s election-day forecast has changed over time.</p>
<div class="quarto-layout-panel">
<div class="quarto-layout-row quarto-layout-valign-top">
<div class="cell quarto-layout-cell" style="flex-basis: 50.0%;justify-content: center;">
<div class="sourceCode cell-code hidden" id="cb8" data-startfrom="598" data-source-offset="0"><pre class="sourceCode js"><code class="sourceCode javascript" style="counter-reset: source-line 597;"><span id="cb8-598"><a href="#cb8-598" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>plot_prob <span class="op">=</span> {</span>
<span id="cb8-599"><a href="#cb8-599" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">const</span> today <span class="op">=</span> d3<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">max</span>(d_history<span class="op">,</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">from_date</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb8-600"><a href="#cb8-600" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">const</span> days_til <span class="op">=</span> (elec_date <span class="op">-</span> today) <span class="op">/</span> (<span class="dv">24</span> <span class="op">*</span> <span class="dv">3600</span> <span class="op">*</span> <span class="dv">1000</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb8-601"><a href="#cb8-601" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb8-602"><a href="#cb8-602" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">plot</span>({</span>
<span id="cb8-603"><a href="#cb8-603" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">y</span><span class="op">:</span> {</span>
<span id="cb8-604"><a href="#cb8-604" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">label</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="kw">null</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-605"><a href="#cb8-605" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">domain</span><span class="op">:</span> [<span class="dv">0</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dv">1</span>]<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-606"><a href="#cb8-606" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">grid</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="kw">true</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-607"><a href="#cb8-607" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">tickFormat</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"%"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-608"><a href="#cb8-608" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">axis</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"right"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-609"><a href="#cb8-609" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">ticks</span><span class="op">:</span> [<span class="dv">0</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.25</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.5</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.75</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dv">1</span>]<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-610"><a href="#cb8-610" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">insetTop</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-611"><a href="#cb8-611" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-612"><a href="#cb8-612" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> {<span class="dt">label</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="kw">null</span>}<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-613"><a href="#cb8-613" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb8-614"><a href="#cb8-614" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">marks</span><span class="op">:</span> [</span>
<span id="cb8-615"><a href="#cb8-615" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">line</span>(d_history<span class="op">,</span> {<span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"from_date"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">y</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"sen_prob"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">strokeWidth</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">3</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">stroke</span><span class="op">:</span> BLUE})<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-616"><a href="#cb8-616" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">line</span>(d_history<span class="op">,</span> {<span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"from_date"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">y</span><span class="op">:</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> <span class="dv">1</span> <span class="op">-</span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_prob</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">strokeWidth</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">3</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">stroke</span><span class="op">:</span> RED})<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-617"><a href="#cb8-617" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb8-618"><a href="#cb8-618" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">ruleY</span>([<span class="fl">0.5</span>]<span class="op">,</span> {<span class="dt">stroke</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"#0007"</span>})<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-619"><a href="#cb8-619" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">ruleX</span>([elec_date<span class="op">,</span> today])<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-620"><a href="#cb8-620" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb8-621"><a href="#cb8-621" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">text</span>([<span class="st">"Odds of winning Senate"</span>]<span class="op">,</span> { </span>
<span id="cb8-622"><a href="#cb8-622" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> d3<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">min</span>(d_history<span class="op">,</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">from_date</span>)<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dy</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="op">-</span><span class="dv">4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-623"><a href="#cb8-623" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">frameAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"top"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">textAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"start"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">lineAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bottom"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-624"><a href="#cb8-624" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fontWeight</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bold"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">fontSize</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">15</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-625"><a href="#cb8-625" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-626"><a href="#cb8-626" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">text</span>([days_til <span class="op">></span> <span class="dv">20</span> <span class="op">+</span> SMALL<span class="op">*</span><span class="dv">30</span> <span class="op">?</span> <span class="st">"TODAY"</span> <span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">""</span>]<span class="op">,</span> { </span>
<span id="cb8-627"><a href="#cb8-627" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> today<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dy</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="op">-</span><span class="dv">4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-628"><a href="#cb8-628" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">frameAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"top"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">textAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"middle"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">lineAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bottom"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-629"><a href="#cb8-629" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fontWeight</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bold"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-630"><a href="#cb8-630" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-631"><a href="#cb8-631" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">text</span>([<span class="st">"ELECTION DAY"</span>]<span class="op">,</span> { </span>
<span id="cb8-632"><a href="#cb8-632" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> elec_date<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dy</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="op">-</span><span class="dv">4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-633"><a href="#cb8-633" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">frameAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"top"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">textAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"middle"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">lineAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bottom"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-634"><a href="#cb8-634" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fontWeight</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bold"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-635"><a href="#cb8-635" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-636"><a href="#cb8-636" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">text</span>([<span class="fu">fmt_pct</span>(d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_prob</span>)]<span class="op">,</span> { </span>
<span id="cb8-637"><a href="#cb8-637" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> today<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">y</span><span class="op">:</span> d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_prob</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dy</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="op">-</span><span class="dv">6</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dx</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-638"><a href="#cb8-638" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">frameAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"top"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">textAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"start"</span><span class="op">,</span> </span>
<span id="cb8-639"><a href="#cb8-639" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fontWeight</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bold"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">fontSize</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">15</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">fill</span><span class="op">:</span> BLUE<span class="op">,</span> </span>
<span id="cb8-640"><a href="#cb8-640" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">stroke</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"white"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">strokeWidth</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-641"><a href="#cb8-641" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-642"><a href="#cb8-642" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">text</span>([<span class="fu">fmt_pct</span>(<span class="dv">1</span> <span class="op">-</span> d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_prob</span>)]<span class="op">,</span> { </span>
<span id="cb8-643"><a href="#cb8-643" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">x</span><span class="op">:</span> today<span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">y</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">1</span> <span class="op">-</span> d_sum<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">sen_prob</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dy</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="op">-</span><span class="dv">6</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">dx</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-644"><a href="#cb8-644" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">frameAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"top"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">textAnchor</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"start"</span><span class="op">,</span> </span>
<span id="cb8-645"><a href="#cb8-645" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">fontWeight</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"bold"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">fontSize</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">15</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">fill</span><span class="op">:</span> RED<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-646"><a href="#cb8-646" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">stroke</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"white"</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dt">strokeWidth</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-647"><a href="#cb8-647" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-648"><a href="#cb8-648" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> ]<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-649"><a href="#cb8-649" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb8-650"><a href="#cb8-650" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">width</span><span class="op">:</span> width <span class="op"><</span> <span class="dv">768</span> <span class="op">?</span> width <span class="op">:</span> <span class="bu">Math</span><span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">min</span>(w_BODY<span class="op">,</span> width) <span class="op">*</span> <span class="fl">0.48</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-651"><a href="#cb8-651" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">height</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">300</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-652"><a href="#cb8-652" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">marginRight</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">40</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-653"><a href="#cb8-653" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">marginLeft</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">0</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb8-654"><a href="#cb8-654" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> })</span>
<span id="cb8-655"><a href="#cb8-655" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>}</span></code></pre></div>
<div id="plot-prob" class="cell-output cell-output-display">
<div id="ojs-cell-8" data-nodetype="declaration">
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="cell quarto-layout-cell" style="flex-basis: 50.0%;justify-content: center;">
<div class="sourceCode cell-code hidden" id="cb9" data-startfrom="660" data-source-offset="0"><pre class="sourceCode js"><code class="sourceCode javascript" style="counter-reset: source-line 659;"><span id="cb9-660"><a href="#cb9-660" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>plot_gcb_prob <span class="op">=</span> {</span>
<span id="cb9-661"><a href="#cb9-661" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">const</span> today <span class="op">=</span> d3<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">max</span>(d_history<span class="op">,</span> d <span class="kw">=></span> d<span class="op">.</span><span class="at">from_date</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb9-662"><a href="#cb9-662" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="kw">const</span> days_til <span class="op">=</span> (elec_date <span class="op">-</span> today) <span class="op">/</span> (<span class="dv">24</span> <span class="op">*</span> <span class="dv">3600</span> <span class="op">*</span> <span class="dv">1000</span>)<span class="op">;</span></span>
<span id="cb9-663"><a href="#cb9-663" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> </span>
<span id="cb9-664"><a href="#cb9-664" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">return</span> Plot<span class="op">.</span><span class="fu">plot</span>({</span>
<span id="cb9-665"><a href="#cb9-665" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">y</span><span class="op">:</span> {</span>
<span id="cb9-666"><a href="#cb9-666" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">label</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="kw">null</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb9-667"><a href="#cb9-667" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">domain</span><span class="op">:</span> [<span class="dv">0</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dv">1</span>]<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb9-668"><a href="#cb9-668" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">grid</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="kw">true</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb9-669"><a href="#cb9-669" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">tickFormat</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"%"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb9-670"><a href="#cb9-670" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">axis</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="st">"right"</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb9-671"><a href="#cb9-671" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">ticks</span><span class="op">:</span> [<span class="dv">0</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.25</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.5</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="fl">0.75</span><span class="op">,</span> <span class="dv">1</span>]<span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb9-672"><a href="#cb9-672" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="dt">insetTop</span><span class="op">:</span> <span class="dv">4</span><span class="op">,</span></span>
<span id="cb9-673"><a href="#cb9-673" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }<span class="op">,</span></span>