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Add forecast functionality #11

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KKulma opened this issue Mar 10, 2020 · 4 comments
Open

Add forecast functionality #11

KKulma opened this issue Mar 10, 2020 · 4 comments
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enhancement New feature or request good first issue Good for newcomers

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@KKulma
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KKulma commented Mar 10, 2020

Pull the results of the short-term forecast available via Carbon Intensity API, see this endpoint.

@KKulma KKulma added enhancement New feature or request good first issue Good for newcomers labels Jun 11, 2020
@p-hunter
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p-hunter commented Apr 17, 2021

Few notes on this one since I partially helped the first time, on things that could be useful for this issue:

  • some sort of Weibull model for wind would be appropriate

  • Hurdle/zeroinfl for solar

  • Holt-Winters tends to work well for electricity demand with a ts object with very granular seasonality (I think the data are every hour... so 24 * 7, 24 * 30, 24*365 etc)

  • when wind and solar are forecasted, the difference between demand - (wind+solar) should effect the carbon intensity

National grid ESO provide their own forecasts, but it's just a very large ANN with lots of layers, 64 nodes per layer. All theory, no practise, and little inference haha.

@KKulma
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KKulma commented Apr 30, 2021

Thanks for your comment, @p-hunter ! For this issue, I meant something much more trivial - pulling the results of the short-term forecast available via Carbon Intensity API, see this endpoint, for example. But of course, we could implement a more sophisticated algorithm in the future 👍

@p-hunter
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whoops! I must have read too deep into this then hahaha. But yes, one day . . .

@dr-harper
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This looks fun to have a stab at, let me see if I get time over the next month :)

Documentation here:
https://carbon-intensity.github.io/api-definitions/#get-intensity-from-fw48h

The approach from @p-hunter has been on my mind a bit, as the Carbon Intensity API only forecasts forwards 48 hours. Elexon provide 14 day wind forecasts although I haven't done any assessment of the accuracy of these. Either way, such work would probably be beyond the scope of this package and deserving of its own repository.

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Labels
enhancement New feature or request good first issue Good for newcomers
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