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For some reason answering this question is like pulling teeth on metaculus. The community prediction seems to have poor accuracy but with intelligent calibration we could get better realtime predictions. In particular, zeroing in on rock star predictors matched up with their specialties. Is this possible on Metaculus? It is on the other platforms, such as Polymarket and Manifold, and to a degree on Kalshi.
It's such a basic ask. Why not be more clear about this?
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For some reason answering this question is like pulling teeth on metaculus. The community prediction seems to have poor accuracy but with intelligent calibration we could get better realtime predictions. In particular, zeroing in on rock star predictors matched up with their specialties. Is this possible on Metaculus? It is on the other platforms, such as Polymarket and Manifold, and to a degree on Kalshi.
It's such a basic ask. Why not be more clear about this?
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