Skip to content
New issue

Have a question about this project? Sign up for a free GitHub account to open an issue and contact its maintainers and the community.

By clicking “Sign up for GitHub”, you agree to our terms of service and privacy statement. We’ll occasionally send you account related emails.

Already on GitHub? Sign in to your account

AR(1) with MLE in ARIMAX does not match exogenous coefficients from OLS estimation #150

Open
argku opened this issue Aug 12, 2019 · 0 comments

Comments

@argku
Copy link

argku commented Aug 12, 2019

I estimated a simple AR(1) model with exogenous variables and the constant. Its coefficients are close to the same model estimated with OLS, but they're not the same.

For instance, the constant is 10.5471 while it has to be 10.5488. The model is:
'y ~ 1 + x1 + x2 ...'.

When I estimate it with OLS, I add one more variable 'yL1' which is lagged dependent variable. Then I run OLS from statsmodels. The dataset has one less observation, of course. The code is:

model = pf.ARIMAX(data=data, formula=formula,
                  ar=1, ma=0, family=pf.Normal())

I tried changing 'gtol' and 'ftol', or switching to 'M-H'. This either didn't help or made things worse. I know that in MATLAB if you decrease tolerance the coefficients of this model with the same data converge to OLS estimates.

Any thoughts?

Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment
Labels
None yet
Projects
None yet
Development

No branches or pull requests

1 participant