thermal_hab_proj.bib

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@misc{Bivand2011,
abstract = {Bivand R, Rundel C. rgeos: Interface to Geometry Engine - Open Source (GEOS). R package version 0.2-7. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=rgeos. 2012. 12.},
author = {Bivand, Roger and Rundel, Colin and Pebesma, Edzer and Hufthammer, Karl O.},
booktitle = {R package version 0.1-8},
pages = {61},
title = {{rgeos: Interface to Geometry Engine–Open Source (GEOS)}},
url = {http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en{\&}btnG=Search{\&}q=intitle:Interface+to+Geometry+Engine+-+Open+Source+(GEOS){\#}0},
year = {2011}
}
@techreport{IPCC2014,
abstract = {The Synthesis Report (SYR), constituting the final product of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is published under the title Climate Change 2014. This report distils, synthesizes and integrates the key findings of the three Working Group contributions – The Physical Science Basis, Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability and Mitigation of Climate Change – to the AR5 in a concise document for the benefit of decision makers in the government, the private sector as well as the public at large. The SYR also draws on the findings of the two Special Reports brought out in 2011 dealing with Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation, and Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. The SYR, therefore, is a comprehensive up-to-date compilation of assessments dealing with climate change, based on the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic literature in the field.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
author = {IPCC},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324},
eprint = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
isbn = {9789291691432},
issn = {1476-4687},
pages = {151},
pmid = {17429376},
title = {{Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Saba2016,
abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment of projected global and regional ocean temperature change is based on global climate models that have coarse (100 km) ocean and atmosphere resolutions. In the Northwest Atlantic, the ensemble of global climate models has a warm bias in sea surface temperature due to a misrepresentation of the Gulf Stream position; thus, existing climate change projections are based on unrealistic regional ocean circulation. Here we compare simulations and an atmospheric CO2 doubling response from four global climate models of varying ocean and atmosphere resolution. We find that the highest resolution climate model (10 km ocean, 50 km atmosphere) resolves Northwest Atlantic circulation and water mass distribution most accurately. The CO2 doubling response from this model shows that upper-ocean (0–300 m) temperature in the Northwest Atlantic Shelf warms at a rate nearly twice as fast as the coarser models and nearly three times faster than the global average. This enhanced warming is accompanied by an increase in salinity due to a change in water mass distribution that is related to a retreat of the Labrador Current and a northerly shift of the Gulf Stream. Both observations and the climate model demonstrate a robust relationship between a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and an increase in the proportion of Warm-Temperate Slope Water entering the Northwest Atlantic Shelf. Therefore, prior climate change projections for the Northwest Atlantic may be far too conservative. These results point to the need to improve simulations of basin and regional-scale ocean circulation.},
author = {Saba, Vincent S. and Griffies, Stephen M. and Anderson, Whit G. and Winton, Michael and Alexander, Michael A. and Delworth, Thomas L. and Hare, Jonathan A. and Harrison, Matthew J. and Rosati, Anthony and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Zhang, Rong},
doi = {10.1002/2015JC011346},
isbn = {8653282898678},
issn = {21699291},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
keywords = {Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation,Climate Change,Gulf Stream,High-Resolution Global Climate Model,Northwest Atlantic Ocean,U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf},
number = {1},
pages = {118--132},
title = {{Enhanced warming of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean under climate change}},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@incollection{Azarovitz1981,
address = {Woods Hole, MA},
author = {Azarovitz, Thomas R.},
booktitle = {Bottom trawl surveys},
pages = {62--67},
publisher = {National Marine Fisheries Service},
title = {{A brief historical review of the Woods Hole Laboratory trawl survey time series}},
url = {http://dmoserv3.whoi.edu/data{\_}docs/NEFSC{\_}Bottom{\_}Trawl/Azarovitz1981.pdf},
year = {1981}
}
@article{Kleisner2017,
abstract = {The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf marine ecosystem has warmed much faster than the global ocean and it is expected that this enhanced warming will continue through this century. Complex bathymetry and ocean circulation in this region have contributed to biases in global climate model simulations of the Shelf waters. Increasing the resolution of these models results in reductions in the bias of future climate change projections and indicates greater warming than suggested by coarse resolution climate projections. Here, we used a high-resolution global climate model and historical observations of species distributions from a trawl survey to examine changes in the future distribution of suitable thermal habitat for various demersal and pelagic species on the Shelf. Along the southern portion of the shelf (Mid-Atlantic Bight and Georges Bank), a projected 4.1 °C (surface) to 5.0 °C (bottom) warming of ocean temperature from current conditions results in a northward shift of the thermal habitat for the majority of species. While some southern species like butterfish and black sea bass are projected to have moderate losses in suitable thermal habitat, there are potentially significant increases for many species including summer flounder, striped bass, and Atlantic croaker. In the north, in the Gulf of Maine, a projected 3.7 °C (surface) to 3.9 °C (bottom) warming from current conditions results in substantial reductions in suitable thermal habitat such that species currently inhabiting this region may not remain in these waters under continued warming. We project a loss in suitable thermal habitat for key northern species including Acadian redfish, American plaice, Atlantic cod, haddock, and thorney skate, but potential gains for some species including spiny dogfish and American lobster. We illustrate how changes in suitable thermal habitat of important commercially fished species may impact local fishing communities and potentially impact major fishing ports along the U.S. Northeast Shelf. Given the complications of multiple drivers including species interactions and fishing pressure, it is difficult to predict exactly how species will shift. However, observations of species distribution shifts in the historical record under ocean warming suggest that temperature will play a primary role in influencing how species fare. Our results provide critical information on the potential for suitable thermal habitat on the U.S. Northeast Shelf for demersal species in the region, and may contribute to the development of ecosystem-based fisheries management strategies in response to climate change.},
author = {Kleisner, Kristin M. and Fogarty, Michael J. and McGee, Sally and Hare, Jonathan A. and Moret, Skye and Perretti, Charles T. and Saba, Vincent S.},
doi = {10.1016/j.pocean.2017.04.001},
issn = {00796611},
journal = {Progress in Oceanography},
keywords = {Climate change,Global climate model,Northwest Atlantic,Temperature shifts,Thermal habitat},
pages = {24--36},
title = {{Marine species distribution shifts on the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf under continued ocean warming}},
volume = {153},
year = {2017}
}
@misc{Wood2011a,
abstract = {mgcv provides functions for generalized additive modelling (gam and bam) and generalized additive mixed modelling (gamm, and random. effects). The term GAM is taken to include any model dependent on unknown smooth functions of predictors and estimated by quadratically penalized (possibly quasi-) likelihood maximization. Available distributions are covered in family. mgcv and available smooths in smooth. terms.Particular features of the package are facilities for automatic smoothness selection (Wood, 2004, 2011), and the provision of a variety of smooths of more than one variable. User defined smooths can be added. A Bayesian approach to confidence/credible interval calculation is provided. Linear functionals of smooths, penalization of parametric model terms and linkage of smoothing parameters are all supported. Lower level routines for generalized ridge regression and penalized linearly constrained least squares are also available.},
author = {Wood, S},
title = {{Mixed GAM Computation Vehicle with GCV/AIC/REML smoothness estimation and GAMMs by REML/PQL}},
url = {https://stat.ethz.ch/R-manual/R-devel/library/mgcv/html/mgcv-package.html},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Duan1983,
abstract = {The smearing estimate is proposed as a nonparametric estimate of the expected response on the untransformed scale after fitting a linear regression model on a transformed scale. The estimate is consistent under mild regularity conditions, and usually attains high efficiency relative to parametric estimates. It can be viewed as a low-premium insurance policy against departures from parametric distributional assumptions. A real-world example of predicting medical expenditures shows that the smearing estimate can outperform parametric estimates even when the parametric assumption is nearly satisfied.},
author = {Duan, Naihua},
doi = {10.1080/01621459.1983.10478017},
isbn = {01621459},
issn = {1537274X},
journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
keywords = {Cobb-Douglas function,Lognormal linear model,Nonparametric,Prediction,Retransformation,Transformation},
number = {383},
pages = {605--610},
pmid = {4601475},
title = {{Smearing estimate: A nonparametric retransformation method}},
volume = {78},
year = {1983}
}
@article{Pinsky2013,
abstract = {Organisms are expected to adapt or move in response to climate change, but observed distribution shifts span a wide range of directions and rates. Explanations often emphasize biological distinctions among species, but general mechanisms have been elusive. We tested an alternative hypothesis: that differences in climate velocity—the rate and direction that climate shifts across the landscape—can explain observed species shifts. We compiled a database of coastal surveys around North America from 1968 to 2011, sampling 128 million individuals across 360 marine taxa. Climate velocity explained the magnitude and direction of shifts in latitude and depth much more effectively than did species characteristics. Our results demonstrate that marine species shift at different rates and directions because they closely track the complex mosaic of local climate velocities.$\backslash$nLocal Speeding$\backslash$nEarly responses of species to climate change seemed to predict a general poleward response (or upward in mountains and downward in the ocean). Pinsky et al. (p. 1239) test an alternative hypothesis that relates more to the nature of climate change than to changes in temperature. Using nearly 50 years of coastal survey data on {\textgreater}350 marine taxa, they found that climate velocity was a much better predictor of patterns of change than individual species' characteristics or life histories. The findings suggest that responses to climate change largely track changes in local conditions.},
author = {Pinsky, Malin L. and Worm, Boris and Fogarty, Michael J. and Sarmiento, Jorge L. and Levin, Simon A.},
doi = {10.1126/science.1239352},
isbn = {0036-8075},
issn = {10959203},
journal = {Science},
number = {6151},
pages = {1239--1242},
pmid = {24031017},
title = {{Marine taxa track local climate velocities}},
volume = {341},
year = {2013}
}