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Backtest Validity

Backtest Overfitting

This website is useful for exploring backtest overfitting.

Overtrading

Trading in larger sizes than would be optimal. If the expected size of mis-pricing or arbitrage is 10 basis point, then no model should have been trade in such a way as to have 15 basis point of market impact. As this can not be sustainably profitable.

Backtest Best Practices

Structural Changes

Gradient Boosting

Adaboost:

  1. First weak learner minimize the number of errors:

  2. Second weak learner focus on the previously mis-classified points by punishing more on the previously mis-classified points in the cost function.

  3. Third, forth, ... learners do the same thing.