CH.1.1.8 saltation, 4 unique patients, Ireland, Dec 2024

[Sinickle]

Query: A1318G, G1400A, C1404T, C3984A
Collection Dates: 2024-12-09, 2024-12-12, 2024-12-13, 2024-12-16
Region: Only Dublin Ireland
Patient metadata: All 4 are unique patient metadata.

Saltation branch mutations:
Unique: T232C, A1318G, G1400A, C1404T, C3984A, G6473A, A10558G, C11687T, A11934G, C12624T, G13127A, A13498G, T15651C, T17139C, T19284C, G20274T, T20561C, C23061G, C23981T, A25101G, T28251G, A28254C, A28483G, T28648C
Homoplasies: C2455T, C3912T, C5884T, C7488T, T9485C, C9491T, C11003T, C16329T, G22770A, C22858T, T26723C

ORF1ab: G379R, P380L, T1216I, T1240K, E2070K, T2408I, Y3074H, H3076Y, H3580Y, L3808F, Q3890R, P4120L, G4288R, T4412A, M6670I, V6766A

S: R403K, T500S, P807S, Q1180R

ORF8: F120V, I121L

Other Inherited mutations after CH.1.1.8:
C12412T->C24099T (S:A846V) -> C26681T

[Tree](https://nextstrain.org/fetch/genome.ucsc.edu/trash/hgPhyloPlace/subtreeAuspice1_genome_1eb768_2556a0.json?f_userOrOld=uploaded%20sample)

![Image]

Discussion:
The nearest neighbors for these sequences were collected approximately 22-24 months prior to these sequences' collection date. many of the nearest neighboring sequences come from Island, like these proposed sequences do.
CH.1.1 was, during the time it was circulating, especially immune evasive but had lesser binding affinity. If these proposed sequences are in fact spreading, then it is unlike previous successful saltations which tend to feature many spike mutations. Possibly CH.1.1.8 starting from a more immune evasive base-line plays a role in this?
Additionally, the 4 patients are all elderly. It's possible that even if there is onwards transmission, this is happening in a facility rather than across the larger community.
The three more recent sequences are on a branch that seems to have gained 5 additional mutations beyond the older sequence.
Currently I have done no sort of outreach and I personally am not planning to do any outreach.

Edit:
I've incorporated the changes discussed below. Thanks ryhisner/FedeGueli!

[ryhisner]

There is actually a previous related sequence from a 4th patient collected a few days earlier.
EPI_ISL_19615536, EPI_ISL_19685790, EPI_ISL_19685811, EPI_ISL_19685815

[FedeGueli]

There is actually a previous related sequence from a 4th patient collected a few days earlier. EPI_ISL_19615536, EPI_ISL_19685790, EPI_ISL_19685811, EPI_ISL_19685815

thank you Ryan! @Sinickle i suggest to edit the query in : A1318G, G1400A, C1404T, C3984A that finds all of them