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Document RR and PAF affected measures, current NO fix #1592

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@zmbc zmbc commented Feb 11, 2025

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@zmbc zmbc added the GBD modeling strategy Documentation for GBD modeling strategy label Feb 11, 2025
@@ -287,9 +287,326 @@ Ratio measures and difference measures tell us very different things. Ratio meas

Difference measures relating to the whole population tend to be more useful and thus more widely used. These population difference measures, also called measures of impact. It is important to realise that ratios and differences can result in very different interpretations. For example, if an association between a risk factor and disease outcome is very strong in a particular group (high relative risks), but the outcome is relatively uncommon in this group, a big increase in risk will result in a modest increase in cases. Alternatively, if the outcome is common among a group, a small relative risk can lead to a large increase in cases. Ratio measures are most useful for determining which risk factors are most strongly associated with disease, whereas difference measures are more useful for estimating the public health importance of different risk factors.

.. _measures_of_impact:

Measures of impact
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Mostly moved from PAF page; moved because it is about epi studies and not simulations specifically

@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ A risk effect is a measure of how some variable (the risk factor) causally impac
some outcome variable.

Generally, we will use risk effects models to represent
associations between two variables that are assumed to be causal and
a causal effect of one variable on another and
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This could probably use a broader sweep through other pages, but I figured I might as well start with this one. Our risk effects have explicitly causal interpretations and we need to state that clearly throughout IMO

@@ -272,41 +275,113 @@ Where,

We can refer to the outcome rate multiplied by (1 - PAF) as the "risk-deleted outcome rate."

.. todo::
Using RRs and PAFs from GBD
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This is the new content.

Comment on lines +366 to +373
Make this precise.
I believe that this is heuristic and not quite correct.
The :ref:`child growth failure risk effects page <2021_risk_effect_cgf>` includes a notebook that approximately checks it
numerically, and a Word document that concludes with an "almost identical"
equation that seems importantly different.
Also, the Word doc appears to be about a risk factor that affects mortality,
rather than a risk factor that affects a disease that affects mortality?
So I think something has been lost here.
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Should probably make a ticket for this?

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Thank you for capturing all of this!

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