Add 2024 DFES files

2024-DFES/README.md

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+# Northern Powergrid Future Energy Scenarios 2024
+
+**This directory contains a prototype tool and none of the data should be taken as real or representative of the scenarios listed.**
+
+## About this visualisation
+
+### Future Energy Scenarios 2024
+Four of the scenarios presented are aligned with Nationalgrid|ESO's [Future Energy Scenarios](https://www.nationalgrideso.com/future-energy/future-energy-scenarios):
+
+* Counterfactual
+* Hydrogen Evolution
+* Electric Engagement
+* Holistic Transition
+* NPg Reference Scenario
+
+### Geographies
+
+We [have created](https://odileeds.org/blog/2019-11-27-building-electricity-distribution-geography) [geographies (polygons) for each Primary substation](https://odileeds.github.io/northern-powergrid/2020-emerging-thinking/data/maps/primaries-unique.geojson) in Northern Powergrid's network. These were built up using [Output Areas](https://www.ons.gov.uk/methodology/geography/ukgeographies/censusgeographies/census2021geographies#output-areas-oas-) as these are the building blocks of census geography as used by the [Office of National Statistics](https://www.ons.gov.uk/). We have used customer postcodes to identify each Output Area supplied by each Primary substation. Output Areas with fewer than 10 customers connected to a Primary substation were excluded. This helped with anonymisation and also reduced data issues in the customer database e.g. incorrect customer postcodes. We construct representative geographies for each Primary substation from the remaining Output Areas. In cases where multiple Primary substations serve the same Output Area, that Output Area is assigned to the Primary substation that serves the most customers there. In 2023 we recreated the geographies using 2021 census Output Areas.
+
+Some Primary substation geographies may show larger areas on the map than they cover in practice particularly in rural areas where network connectivity may be concentrated in specific parts of an Output Area. The areas shown here are representative for the purpose of showing the Future Energy Scenario model data and should not be relied upon for checking connectivity or to assess the terms of connection for specific premises.
+
+### Local Authority view
+
+The model predictions have been created by Primary substation and that is the definitive view. The Local Authority view is constructed from the Primary substation values. We have found the proportion of a Primary substation's customers in each Local Authority district (as defined in April 2019) by adding up the customers in each Output Area belonging to a specific Local Authority district. For some parameters (e.g. electric vehicles) the values from the Primary substations are apportioned to each Local Authority District and then summated into totals. For values which can't be summated (e.g. Peak demand) we have shown the maximum value for any Primary substation that serves a Local Authority. For Local Authorities which are only partially in Northern Powergrid areas the model only produces forecasts for the area served by Northern Powergrid, so it is not a total Local Authority forecast. Examples of these Local Authorities partially served by Northern Powergrid include Bassetlaw, East Lindsey, High Peak, North East Derbyshire, North East Lincolnshire, North Lincolnshire, Pendle, West Lindsey. There are some additional major sites situated within a Local Authority area which distribute into many Local Authority areas and which may have further direct connections for large wind, solar and other generation. Data for these Grid Supply Points (connection points between the GB transmission network and Northern Powergrid’s distribution network) and Bulk Supply Points (connection points on NPg's network which are fed from the Grid Supply Points and supply the primary substations) can also be downloaded from Data Mill North.
+Data
+
+The Primary substation [data files](data/) that power this visualisation are stored within this repository.

2024-DFES/data/README.md

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+# Future Energy Scenario Data
+
+Element Energy create yearly predictions for each Primary sub-station over a variety of `parameters` for several `scenarios`. The data are stored in separate files - one for each `scenario`/`parameter` combination - within the [scenarios/primaries](scenarios/primaries/) sub-directory. 
+
+## Files
+
+The following files are in this directory:
+
+* [colours.csv](colours.csv) - this is used to define the colours used for lines on the graphs.
+* [graphs.pl](graphs.pl) - Perl code that generates the graphs and tables. It will need to be re-run if the graph data are updated.
+* [primaries2lad.json](primaries2lad.json) - how Primary sub-stations split between Local Authority Districts. The split was calculated using the proportion of customers attached to a Primary were within different Local Authority Districts.
+
+## Sub-directories
+
+### [graphs/](graphs/)
+
+The graphs directory contains CSV files used to generate the graphs for `graph.html`. The [index.json](graphs/index.json) file defines each of the graphs that will be made by running `perl graph.pl`. Each one is of the form:
+
+```
+{
+	"csv":"Total number of EVs (#).csv",
+	"svg":"graph-ev.svg",
+	"table":"graph-ev.html",
+	"yaxis-label": "Number",
+	"yaxis-max": 100,
+	"yscale": 100,
+	"left": 120
+}
+```
+
+where `csv` is the CSV file in the [graphs/](graphs/) directory to use, `svg` is the file name for the resulting SVG graphic, `table` is the resulting HTML fragment for the table, `yaxis-label` is the y-axis label, `left` is the left placement (in pixels) of the y-axis, `yaxis-max` is the maximum value for the y-axis (useful for limiting the auto-range), and `yscale` is a factor by which to scale the y-axis values (particularly useful for getting to percentages from 0-1 range numbers).
+
+### [lib/](lib/)
+
+This directory contains Perl modules for use by the `graphs.pl` code.
+
+### [maps/](maps/)
+
+The maps directory contains GeoJSON files that are needed for the visualisation. These include:
+
+  * [LAD2019-npg.geojson](maps/LAD2019-npg.geojson) - the Local Authority boundaries (2019)
+  * [primaries-unique-all.geojson](maps/primaries-unique-all.geojson) - the geography of the Primary sub-stations (based on 2019)
+
+### [scenarios/](scenarios/)
+
+The [scenarios/index.json](scenarios/index.json) JSON file describes the scenarios and gives links to the relevant data files for each parameter within each scenario.
+
+The `parameters` are defined in [scenarios/config.json](scenarios/config.json).
+

2024-DFES/data/colours.csv

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+Domestic,#F1060E
+I & C,#6DC2C7
+Heat pumps - domestic,#2D137F
+Heat pumps – I & C,#D6D2D1
+EV,#45D526
+Heating oil,#420A0C
+Natural gas,#B8BFF9
+Hydrogen,#0279FA
+Bioenergy,#019303
+Biofuel,#019303
+Bio-fuel,#019303
+Bio-energy,#019303
+Petrol,#FFC300
+Petroleum,#FFC300
+Solid fuel,#505050
+Diesel,#846F3F
+Fuel Oil,#846F3F
+Wind,#2780E7
+Large solar,#F6F005
+Domestic solar,#F65E05
+Total emissions,#000000
+Other,#80604E
+Electric HGVs,#FF9966
+Electric Buses,#466228
+Electrolysers,#4BACC6
+Large industry Fuel Switching,#808080

2024-DFES/data/graphs.pl

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+#!/usr/bin/perl
+
+# Get directory
+my $dir;
+BEGIN {
+	$dir = $0;
+	$dir =~ s/[^\/]*$//g;
+	if(!$dir){ $dir = "./"; }
+	$lib = $dir."lib/";
+}
+use lib $lib;
+use utf8;
+use warnings;
+use strict;
+use Data::Dumper;
+use POSIX qw(strftime);
+use JSON::XS;
+use ODILeeds::NPG;
+
+# Define input files
+my $file_scenario = $dir."scenarios/index.json";
+my $file_colours = $dir."colours.csv";
+my $file_index = $dir."graphs/index.json";
+
+# Define output file
+my $file_html = $dir."../graphs.html";
+
+
+
+# Define variables
+my (@lines,%scenarios,@cols,$line,$scenario,@graphs,$html,$i,$graph,$svg,@sections,$section,$s,$str,$fig,$table);
+
+# Get the scenario config
+msg("Reading scenarios from <cyan>$file_scenario<none>\n");
+open(FILE,$file_scenario);
+@lines = <FILE>;
+close(FILE);
+%scenarios = %{JSON::XS->new->utf8->decode(join("\n",@lines))};
+foreach $scenario (keys(%scenarios)){
+	msg("\t$scenario: $scenarios{$scenario}{'color'} / $scenarios{$scenario}{'css'}\n");
+}
+
+# Load in the extra colour definitions
+msg("Reading colours from <cyan>$file_colours<none>\n");
+open(FILE,$file_colours);
+@lines = <FILE>;
+close(FILE);
+foreach $line  (@lines){
+	$line =~ s/[\n\r]//g;
+	(@cols) = split(/,(?=(?:[^\"]*\"[^\"]*\")*(?![^\"]*\"))/,$line);
+	if($cols[0]){
+		$scenarios{$cols[0]} = ();
+		$scenarios{$cols[0]}{'color'} = $cols[1];
+	}
+}
+
+
+
+if(-e $file_index){
+	msg("Read in graph definitions from <cyan>$file_index<none>\n");
+	# Get the graph config
+	open(FILE,$file_index);
+	@lines = <FILE>;
+	close(FILE);
+	@sections = @{JSON::XS->new->utf8->decode(join("\n",@lines))};
+
+	# Create the SVG output
+	$graph = ODILeeds::NPG->new();
+	$graph->setScenarios(%scenarios);
+	$html = "";
+
+
+	$fig = 1;
+
+	for($s = 0; $s < @sections; $s++){
+		msg("Section: <green>".($sections[$s]->{'title'}||"")."<none>\n");
+
+		$html .= "<h2>".($sections[$s]->{'title'}||"")."</h2>\n";
+		if($sections[$s]->{'intro'}){
+			$html .= ($sections[$s]->{'intro'}||"")."\n";
+		}
+		@graphs = @{$sections[$s]->{'graphs'}};
+		for($i = 0; $i < (@graphs); $i++,$fig++){
+			msg("\tFigure <yellow>$fig<none>: <cyan>".$dir."graphs/$graphs[$i]{'csv'}<none>\n");
+			$graph->load($dir.'graphs/'.$graphs[$i]{'csv'})->process();
+
+			# If we have a y-axis scaling we scale the values
+			if($graphs[$i]{'yscale'}){
+				$graph->scaleY($graphs[$i]{'yscale'});
+			}
+			$table = $graph->table(());
+
+			# Output the SVG
+			$svg = $graph->draw(('yaxis-label'=>$graphs[$i]{'yaxis-label'},'yscale'=>$graphs[$i]{'yscale'},'yaxis-max'=>$graphs[$i]{'yaxis-max'},'width'=>'640','xaxis-max'=>2051,'xaxis-line'=>1,'stroke'=>3,'strokehover'=>5,'point'=>4,'pointhover'=>6,'line'=>2,'yaxis-format'=>"commify",'yaxis-labels-baseline'=>'middle','xaxis-ticks'=>1,'left'=>$graphs[$i]{'left'},'tooltip'=>$graphs[$i]{'tooltip'}));
+			open(FILE,'>',$dir.'graphs/'.$graphs[$i]{'svg'});
+			print FILE $svg;
+			close(FILE);
+
+			# Set whitespace for HTML
+			$svg =~ s/\n/\n\t\t\t\t\t/g;
+			$table =~ s/\n/\n\t\t\t\t/g;
+
+			$html .= "\t\t\t<figure>\n";
+			$html .= "\t\t\t\t<figcaption><strong>Figure ".($fig).":</strong> $graphs[$i]{'title'}</figcaption>\n";
+			$html .= "\t\t\t\t<div class=\"table-holder\">\n";
+			$html .= "\t\t\t\t".$table;
+			$html .= "</div>\n";
+			$html .= "\t\t\t\t<div class=\"oi-viz oi-chart oi-chart-line\">\n";
+			$html .= "\t\t\t\t\t<a id=\"pre-fig-$fig\" href=\"#post-fig-$fig\" class=\"skip-link button\">Skip chart</a>\n";
+			$html .= "\t\t\t\t\t$svg\n";
+			$html .= "\t\t\t\t\t<a id=\"post-fig-$fig\" href=\"#pre-fig-$fig\" class=\"skip-link skip-link-bottom button\">Go to start of chart</a>\n";
+			$html .= "\t\t\t\t</div>\n";
+			$html .= "\t\t\t\t<div class=\"download\">\n";
+			$html .= "\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"data/graphs/$graphs[$i]{'svg'}\"><img src=\"resources/download.svg\" alt=\"download\" title=\"Download graph from Figure ".($i+1)."\" /> SVG</a>\n";
+			$html .= "\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"data/graphs/$graphs[$i]{'csv'}\"><img src=\"resources/download.svg\" alt=\"download\" title=\"Download data from Figure ".($i+1)."\" /> CSV</a>\n";
+			$html .= "\t\t\t\t</div>\n";
+			$html .= "\t\t\t</figure>\n\n";
+
+		}
+	}
+
+	open(FILE,$file_html);
+	@lines = <FILE>;
+	close(FILE);
+	$str = join("",@lines);
+	$str =~ s/(<!-- START GRAPHS -->)(.*)(<!-- END GRAPHS -->)/$1$html$3/s;
+
+	msg("Save result in <cyan>$file_html<none>\n");
+	open(FILE,">",$file_html);
+	print FILE $str;
+	close(FILE);
+
+}else{
+	error("Unable to read graph definitions from <cyan>$file_index<none>\n");
+}
+
+
+
+
+#####################
+# Subroutines
+
+sub msg {
+	my $str = $_[0];
+	my $dest = $_[1]||"STDOUT";
+
+	my %colours = (
+		'black'=>"\033[0;30m",
+		'red'=>"\033[0;31m",
+		'green'=>"\033[0;32m",
+		'yellow'=>"\033[0;33m",
+		'blue'=>"\033[0;34m",
+		'magenta'=>"\033[0;35m",
+		'cyan'=>"\033[0;36m",
+		'white'=>"\033[0;37m",
+		'none'=>"\033[0m"
+	);
+	foreach my $c (keys(%colours)){ $str =~ s/\< ?$c ?\>/$colours{$c}/g; }
+	if($dest eq "STDERR"){
+		print STDERR $str;
+	}else{
+		print STDOUT $str;
+	}
+}
+
+sub error {
+	my $str = $_[0];
+	$str =~ s/(^[\t\s]*)/$1<red>ERROR:<none> /;
+	msg($str,"STDERR");
+}
+
+sub warning {
+	my $str = $_[0];
+	$str =~ s/(^[\t\s]*)/$1<yellow>WARNING:<none> /;
+	msg($str,"STDERR");
+}
+
+

2024-DFES/data/graphs/AnnualCarbonEmissions_MtCO2.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+Scenario,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035,2036,2037,2038,2039,2040,2041,2042,2043,2044,2045,2046,2047,2048,2049,2050
+NPg Planning scenario,34.39444922,33.12113949,32.3219204,30.88868177,28.33214507,26.18467277,24.18075712,22.29941961,20.22364966,18.33698608,16.24639693,14.35157228,12.55832502,10.89264661,9.582072095,8.367612352,7.254486171,6.191408758,5.173389698,4.108110367,3.279335993,2.579018768,1.995023632,1.448057442,1.049046159,0.654529489,0.380736615,0.285127765,0.219863684

2024-DFES/data/graphs/AnnualNetworkEnergyConsumption_TWh.csv

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+Scenario,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035,2036,2037,2038,2039,2040,2041,2042,2043,2044,2045,2046,2047,2048,2049,2050
+Electric Engagement,34.390,35.090,35.796,36.377,37.190,38.212,39.328,40.650,41.819,42.991,44.133,45.240,46.909,49.210,51.308,53.282,55.106,56.845,58.224,59.448,60.613,61.749,62.854,63.838,64.747,65.600,66.431,67.109
+Hydrogen Evolution,34.383,35.107,35.852,36.438,37.183,38.100,39.117,40.372,41.480,42.598,43.711,44.838,46.547,48.812,50.929,52.952,54.847,56.676,58.311,59.828,61.253,62.566,63.738,64.699,65.576,66.422,67.176,67.791
+Holistic Transition,34.390,35.085,35.786,36.361,37.167,38.182,39.290,40.605,41.768,42.934,44.071,45.173,46.821,49.051,51.077,52.976,54.724,56.386,57.553,58.578,59.555,60.511,61.466,62.326,63.102,63.836,64.544,65.120
+NPg Reference Scenario,34.390,35.150,36.033,36.894,37.963,39.082,40.190,41.630,42.917,44.150,45.329,46.463,48.084,50.363,52.422,54.341,56.084,57.732,59.130,60.338,61.472,62.577,63.654,64.627,65.544,66.411,67.255,67.948
+Counterfactual,34.381,35.108,35.781,36.303,37.011,37.809,38.657,39.785,40.802,41.849,42.895,43.960,45.238,46.325,47.418,48.514,49.582,50.666,51.610,52.471,53.268,53.974,54.592,55.083,55.515,55.904,56.255,56.564

2024-DFES/data/graphs/AnnualPeakDemand_GW.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+Scenario ,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035,2036,2037,2038,2039,2040,2041,2042,2043,2044,2045,2046,2047,2048,2049,2050
+Electric Engagement,6.312,6.595,6.849,7.129,7.582,7.837,8.043,8.338,8.536,8.732,8.918,9.099,9.510,10.016,10.483,10.928,11.346,11.770,12.098,12.391,12.674,12.955,13.258,13.506,13.735,13.951,14.163,14.332
+Hydrogen Evolution,6.345,6.643,6.921,7.218,7.670,7.915,8.115,8.414,8.620,8.823,9.021,9.217,9.676,10.302,10.888,11.450,11.984,12.521,13.000,13.456,13.893,14.304,14.692,14.984,15.249,15.509,15.734,15.901
+Holistic Transition,6.312,6.594,6.846,7.125,7.575,7.828,8.032,8.325,8.522,8.715,8.899,9.076,9.481,9.962,10.402,10.820,11.210,11.605,11.876,12.116,12.349,12.581,12.841,13.053,13.244,13.424,13.597,13.736
+Counterfactual,6.352,6.652,6.909,7.189,7.631,7.847,8.013,8.298,8.499,8.703,8.903,9.104,9.441,9.646,9.847,10.046,10.239,10.457,10.630,10.789,10.943,11.081,11.223,11.314,11.397,11.475,11.547,11.612
+NPg Reference Scenario,6.312,6.610,6.905,7.249,7.761,8.040,8.245,8.568,8.793,9.001,9.194,9.378,9.782,10.289,10.750,11.184,11.583,11.986,12.314,12.599,12.870,13.140,13.432,13.675,13.905,14.124,14.338,14.510
+NPg Reference Scenario (No ToUT),6.351,6.676,7.009,7.404,7.969,8.304,8.567,8.952,9.236,9.495,9.736,9.964,10.415,10.969,11.471,11.943,12.376,12.809,13.162,13.469,13.760,14.046,14.352,14.606,14.845,15.071,15.292,15.469

2024-DFES/data/graphs/BatteryStorageCapacityInstalled_GW.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+Scenario,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035,2036,2037,2038,2039,2040,2041,2042,2043,2044,2045,2046,2047,2048,2049,2050
+Electric Engagement,0.371,0.409,0.445,0.485,0.650,0.821,0.994,1.215,1.411,1.760,1.885,1.992,2.022,2.053,2.088,2.126,2.167,2.211,2.259,2.310,2.365,2.422,2.482,2.545,2.611,2.681,2.754,2.831
+Hydrogen Evolution,0.371,0.400,0.430,0.462,0.675,0.841,0.965,1.081,1.178,1.475,1.581,1.588,1.596,1.603,1.612,1.621,1.631,1.642,1.654,1.667,1.681,1.696,1.711,1.728,1.744,1.762,1.780,1.799
+Holistic Transition,0.371,0.409,0.445,0.484,0.680,0.862,1.015,1.171,1.544,1.694,1.977,2.009,2.043,2.079,2.120,2.164,2.212,2.363,2.419,2.479,2.542,2.609,2.679,2.753,2.830,2.911,2.997,3.087
+NPg Reference Scenario,0.371,0.411,0.449,0.489,0.661,0.840,1.029,1.264,1.481,2.040,2.199,2.332,2.347,2.364,2.380,2.408,2.447,2.501,2.549,2.462,2.506,2.575,2.638,2.702,2.767,2.836,2.911,2.991
+Counterfactual,0.371,0.400,0.429,0.460,0.660,0.762,0.928,1.095,1.098,1.237,1.423,1.426,1.507,1.511,1.515,1.519,1.523,1.528,1.534,1.620,1.626,1.633,1.641,1.648,1.656,1.665,1.674,1.683

2024-DFES/data/graphs/CumulativeCarbonEmissions_MtCO2.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+Scenario,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035,2036,2037,2038,2039,2040,2041,2042,2043,2044,2045,2046,2047,2048,2049,2050
+NPg Planning Scenario,104.4599061,137.5810456,169.902966,200.7916478,229.1237929,255.3084656,279.4892228,301.7886424,322.012292,340.3492781,356.595675,370.9472473,383.5055723,394.3982189,403.980291,412.3479034,419.6023896,425.7937983,430.967188,435.0752984,438.3546344,440.9336532,442.9286768,444.3767342,445.4257804,446.0803099,446.4610465,446.7461743,446.9660379

2024-DFES/data/graphs/ElectricVehiclePenetrationOfTotalCarStock_percent.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+Scenario,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035,2036,2037,2038,2039,2040,2041,2042,2043,2044,2045,2046,2047,2048,2049,2050
+NPg Reference Scenario,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.19,0.25,0.31,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99

2024-DFES/data/graphs/IndustryAdditionalEnergyConsumptionBreakdown_NPgReferenceScenario_TWh.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+Additional Energy consumption breakdown,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035,2036,2037,2038,2039,2040,2041,2042,2043,2044,2045,2046,2047,2048,2049,2050
+Electrolysers,0.000,0.001,0.079,0.191,0.224,0.298,0.593,0.906,1.291,1.897,2.720,3.713,5.103,5.828,8.596,8.921,9.369,9.844,10.757,12.740,13.967,14.915,15.498,16.257,17.012,17.251,17.230,16.957
+Large industry Fuel Switching,0.183,0.244,0.305,0.406,0.506,0.607,0.708,0.809,0.942,1.075,1.208,1.341,1.474,1.653,1.833,2.012,2.191,2.371,2.739,3.107,3.475,3.843,4.211,4.817,5.423,6.029,6.635,7.241

2024-DFES/data/graphs/IndustryAdditionalPeakDemandBreakdown_NPgReferenceScenario_MW.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+Demand type,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035,2036,2037,2038,2039,2040,2041,2042,2043,2044,2045,2046,2047,2048,2049,2050
+Electrolysers,0,0,9,22,26,34,68,103,147,217,310,424,583,665,981,1018,1070,1124,1228,1454,1594,1703,1769,1856,1942,1969,1967,1936
+Large industry Fuel Switching,21,28,35,46,58,69,81,92,108,123,138,153,168,189,209,230,250,271,313,355,397,439,481,550,619,688,757,827