EnsoPrMapDjf
Computes the spatial root mean square error (RMSE) of global (60°S-60°N) precipitation anomalies (PRA) during boreal winter (DJF averaged) between model and observations
TropFlux and GPCPv2.3 1979-2018 (main)
SST: 20CRv2 1871-2012, ERA-Interim 1979-2018, ERSSTv5 1854-2018, HadISST 1870-2018, NCEP2 1979-2018
PR: 20CRv2 1871-2012, CMAP 1979-2018, ERA-Interim 1979-2018, NCEP2 1979-2018
Niño3.4, global60
model and observations regridded toward a generic 1°x1° grid (using cdms esmf linear method)
- seasonal cycle removed
- detrending (if applicable)
- spatial average
- seasonal cycle removed
- detrending (if applicable)
- regridding (if applicable)
- DJF Niño3.4 SSTA regressed onto DJF PRA global (60°S-60°N)
- RMSE computation
monthly
mm/day/°C
- precipitation (PR)
- sea surface temperature (SST)
The first level shows the diagnostic used to compute the metric and highlight the main differences between the model and the reference.
Figure 1: structure of precipitation anomalies (PRA) on Earth (between 60°S-60°N), showing the location of PRA associated with ENSO. Usually the teleconnection pattern is ok (rmse ~ 0.28mm/day/°C). The left and right maps show respectively the reference and the model. The main metric derived is the spatial RMSE between the model map and the reference map.
The second level shows the same diagnostic with La Niña (norm. December Niño3.4 SSTA < -0.75) and El Niño (norm. December Niño3.4 SSTA > 0.75) events composites.
Figure 2: structure of precipitation anomalies (PRA) on Earth (between 60°S-60°N), showing the location of PRA associated with La Niña (top) and El Niño (bottom). It shows that teleconnections are not totally symmetric (e.g. East Africa or South-East South America). It also shows that some model biases are more related to one phase of ENSO than the other: here the teleconnection bias in the South Pacific is more related to a too weak increase of PR during El Niño and the bias in South Africa is more related to an absence of teleconnection during La Niña.
The Third level focusses on teleconnections over key land regions: southern half of Africa, North America, South America, South East Asia, Australia.
Figure 3: precipitation anomalies (PRA) over the southern half of Africa. The reference shows a negative teleconnection (up to 0.8mm/day/°C) over southern Africa (South of 15°S) and a positive teleconnection (around 0.6mm/day/°C) over eastern Africa (Kenya & Tanzania). Here, the spatial teleconnection pattern is quite well simulated but the negative teleconnection over southern Africa is too weak (around -0.2mm/day/°C). The left and right maps show respectively the reference and the model.
Figure 4: same as Figure 3 with La Niña (norm. December Niño3.4 SSTA < -0.75) and El Niño (norm. December Niño3.4 SSTA > 0.75) events composites.
Figure 5: precipitation anomalies (PRA) over North America. The reference shows a positive teleconnection (up to 0.6mm/day/°C) over southeast USA (around the Gulf of Mexico). Here, the model simulates a pattern close to the observed one but the positive teleconnection is too strong over the Mexico and the negative teleconnection is too strong over British Colombia. The left and right maps show respectively the reference and the model.
Figure 6: same as Figure 5 with La Niña (norm. December Niño3.4 SSTA < -0.75) and El Niño (norm. December Niño3.4 SSTA > 0.75) events composites.
Figure 7: precipitation anomalies (PRA) over South America. The reference shows a strong negative teleconnection around the Amazon river and in Colombia (both up to -1mm/day/°C), and a strong positive teleconnection (around 1mm/day/°C) over southeastern South America (Uruguay and South Brazil). Here, the model simulates a pattern close to the observed one but the teleconnections are too weak (divided by two). The left and right maps show respectively the reference and the model.
Figure 8: same as Figure 7 with La Niña (norm. December Niño3.4 SSTA < -0.75) and El Niño (norm. December Niño3.4 SSTA > 0.75) events composites.
Figure 9: precipitation anomalies (PRA) over South East Asia. The reference shows a negative teleconnection in Indochinese peninsula, Indonesia and Philippines (minimum around -1mm/day/°C), and weaker positive teleconnections over Southeast China and West Borneo (both around 0.5mm/day/°C). Here, the model simulates a pattern close to the observed one but the positive teleconnection over Borneo is very weak and the one over Southeast China extends too far West. The left and right maps show respectively the reference and the model.
Figure 10: same as Figure 9 with La Niña (norm. December Niño3.4 SSTA < -0.75) and El Niño (norm. December Niño3.4 SSTA > 0.75) events composites.
Figure 11: precipitation anomalies (PRA) over Australia. The reference shows negative teleconnections over this region with minima over New Guinea (around -1mm/day/°C), northwestern and northeastern Australia (both around -0.6mm/day/°C). Here, the model simulates quite well the reference reference pattern but does not simulate the negative teleconnection northwestern Australia and simulate a positive teleconnection over the South Island of New Zealand (up to 0.3mm/day/°C). The left and right maps show respectively the reference and the model.
Figure 12: same as Figure 11 with La Niña (norm. December Niño3.4 SSTA < -0.75) and El Niño (norm. December Niño3.4 SSTA > 0.75) events composites.