EnsoSstTsRmse
Computes the temporal root mean square error (RMSE) of central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA; horizontal Niño3.4 average) during 6 years centered on ENSO peak between model and observations
TropFlux 1979-2018 (main)
20CRv2 1871-2012, ERA-Interim 1979-2018, ERSSTv5 1854-2018, HadISST 1870-2018, NCEP2 1979-2018
Niño3.4
None
- seasonal cycle removed
- detrending (if applicable)
- smoothed with time running average
- spatial average
- December Niño3.4 SSTA regressed onto SSTA time series
- RMSE computation
monthly
°C/°C
sea surface temperature (SST)
The first level shows the diagnostic used to compute the metric and highlight the main differences between the model and the reference.
Figure 1: temporal structure of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the central equatorial Pacific (Niño3.4 averaged), showing the temporal evolution of SSTA associated with ENSO (usually too frequent swing from negative to positive SSTA). The black and blue curves show respectively the reference and the model. The metric, derived is the zonal RMSE between the model curve and the reference curve.
The second level shows the broader picture to better understand the spatial-temporal pattern of ENSO: the Hovmöller of the anomalies in the equatorial Pacific.
Figure 2: spatial-temporal structure of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) associated with ENSO in the equatorial Pacific (5°S-5°N average), showing usually the too frequent swing from negative to positive SSTA, along with maximum anomalies during ENSO peak lasting too long. The left and right Hovmöllers show respectively the reference and the model.
The third level is similar to the first, but with La Niña and El Niño composites.
Figure 3: temporal structure of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) during La Niña and El Niño in the central equatorial Pacific (Niño3.4 averaged), showing usually the model's tendency to swing from El Niño to La Niña and the weak (of not frequent enough) capacity of the models to generate two-years La Niña. The blue and red curves show respectively La Niña composite and the El Niño composite, dashed and solid lines show respectively the reference and the model.
The fourth level is similar to the second, but with La Niña and El Niño composites.
Figure 4: spatial-temporal structure of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) during La Niña and El Niño in the equatorial Pacific (5°S-5°N average), showing usually the model's tendency to swing from El Niño to La Niña and the weak (of not frequent enough) capacity of the models to generate two-years La Niña. The left and right Hovmöllers show respectively the reference and the model. The first and second rows show respectively the La Niña composites and the El Niño composites.